Skip to main content
GEFGreif Inc.Sell5.5·$63.34-0.39%
Open full analysis

Greif Inc. (GEF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. At $63.34, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. Revenue spans chemicals, food, petroleum, automotive, and other industries, with no single... Read more

$63.34+4.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.63%(5y avg 3.15%)Payout89.26%at-risk
Stop $60.48Target $66.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$76.20+20.3%5 analysts
$66.29our TP
$63.34price
$76.20mean
$90

Sell if holding. At $63.34, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.2
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.81
Dividend3.63%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$65+2.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. operations37%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 37% of our fiscal 2024 sales derived from non-U.S. operations'
  • LOWGeographicRussia3.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our operations in Russia accounted for approximately 3% of our net sales, approximately 9% of our operating profit and approximately 2% of our total assets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Greif terminated its Prior Credit Agreement on February 27, 2026, replaced in its entirety by a new Third Amended and Restated senior secured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank providing $800M revolving and $100M term loan facilities maturing February 27, 2031.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 363.0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.9
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spot8K FLAG 1.02Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.55Resistance $68.28

Price Targets

$60
$66
A.Upside+4.7%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $63.34, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $60.48. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the GEF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.29 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $60.48. Stop-loss: $60.48.

What are the risks of investing in GEF?

Thin upside margin: 4.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is GEF overvalued or undervalued?

Greif Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.2 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEF?

10 analysts cover GEF with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Greif Inc. do?Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global...

Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. Revenue spans chemicals, food, petroleum, automotive, and other industries, with no single customer considered principal to total operations.

Related stocks: CCK (Crown Holdings, Inc.) · SLGN (Silgan Holdings Inc.) · REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) · BALL (Ball Corporation) · AMBP (Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.)
Home Stocks GEF

Latest news

Latest News

GlobeNewswire54d ago
MarketBeat48d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com48d agoEarnings
The Motley Fool55d agoEarnings
The Globe and Mail55d agoEarnings
MarketBeat55d agoEarnings
Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La53d agoEarnings
Xã Vĩnh Công53d ago
UBND thành phố Hải Phòng54d ago
Yahoo Finance52d ago
MarketBeat58d ago
MarketBeat49d ago
Benzinga13d ago
Benzinga24d ago
Benzinga41d ago
Benzinga42d agoAnalyst
Benzinga48d agoEarnings
Benzinga48d agoEarnings
Benzinga56d ago