Four consecutive quarterly beats with a forward P/E of 11.3x and a PEG of 0.28 offer a compelling combination of earnings delivery and valuation, supported by a roughly 2-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio; the main constraints are an asymmetry ratio of 1.0-to-1 that falls short of the 1.5-to-1 entry bar and over 70% revenue dependence on a single end-market, which limits the margin for error if conditions in that market deteriorate.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Growth Combination→Stable
- Beverage Can Geographic Concentration↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. At $116.25, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: global beverage can business (73.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (61.0%).
Crown Holdings manufactures metal cans and ends for beverages, food, and aerosol markets plus transit packaging products, operating 179 plants in 39 countries with approximately 23,000 employees. The company generated $12.4 billion in consolidated net sales in 2025, with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $116.25, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: global beverage can business (73.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (61.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Crown Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS UBS raises Crown Holdings stock price target to $123 on volumes - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Truist raises Crown Holdings stock price target on strong demand - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Why Did CVS, URGN, CCK Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs Today? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits positive
- NEWS Crown Holdings (CCK) Receives a Buy from Raymond James - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Earnings Preview: CCK to Report Financial Results Post-market on April 27 - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductglobal beverage can business73%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 73% of the Company's consolidated net sales were derived from the Company's global beverage can business.'
- HIGHGeographicinternational operations61%10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's international operations generated approximately 61% of its consolidated net sales in the year ended 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten global customers48%10-K Item 1: 'The Company's top ten global customers represented in the aggregate approximately 48% of its 2025 consolidated net sales.'
- LOWCustomerone customer (12% of net sales)12%10-K Item 1: 'one customer accounted for approximately 12%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, of the Company's consolidated net sales'
- LOWCustomeranother customer (11% of net sales)11%10-K Item 1: 'another customer accounted for approximately 11%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, of the Company's consolidated net sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOWCrown Holdings announced the promotion of Dr. John M. Rost (age 56), current President of the Asia Pacific Division, to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer — Asia Pacific and Transit Packaging, effective April 1, 2026. No reason cited; internal promotion with clean succession.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $116.25, A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: global beverage can business (73.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (61.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $110.67. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $118.45 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $110.67. Stop-loss: $110.67.
Concentration risk — Product: global beverage can business (73.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international operations (61.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Crown Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover CCK with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $136.
What does Crown Holdings, Inc. do?Crown Holdings manufactures metal cans and ends for beverages, food, and aerosol markets plus transit packaging...
Crown Holdings manufactures metal cans and ends for beverages, food, and aerosol markets plus transit packaging products, operating 179 plants in 39 countries with approximately 23,000 employees. The company generated $12.4 billion in consolidated net sales in 2025, with approximately 73% derived from its global beverage can business and 61% from international operations.