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Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $188.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

Hanover Insurance Group is a U.S. P&C insurer with Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other segments distributed through independent agents, generating approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025. Business is concentrated in Michigan (18.7%) and... Read more

$188.68-0.5% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#8 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $180.26Target $187.83(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$198.13+5.0%8 analysts
$187.83our TP
$188.68price
$198.13mean
$208

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $188.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.5
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$6.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE21.7%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$150-20.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicMichigan19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'
  • LOWGeographicMassachusetts8.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.6
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $173.09Resistance $191.66

Price Targets

$180
$188
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is THG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $188.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $187.83 (-0.5%), stop $180.26 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the THG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $187.83 (-0.5% upside). Target $187.83 (-0.5%), stop $180.26 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $180.26.

What are the risks of investing in THG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

Is THG overvalued or undervalued?

Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about THG?

11 analysts cover THG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $198.

What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group is a U.S. P&C insurer with Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other segments...

Hanover Insurance Group is a U.S. P&C insurer with Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other segments distributed through independent agents, generating approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025. Business is concentrated in Michigan (18.7%) and Massachusetts (8.0%) with significant Core Commercial and Specialty exposure in California and Texas.

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