Hanover Insurance Group has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 25.1% and trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.22, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and sits 0.7% from its 52-week high with negative asymmetry and declining forward earnings estimates.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation With Peg Discount→Stable
- Declining Earnings Estimates→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $233.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away).
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $233.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Hanover Insurance Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS The Hanover Insurance: Better Margins Justify A Premium Valuation (NYSE:THG) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS THG Q2 Earnings Beat on Personal Lines Gains, Revenues Miss - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS THG Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Technology Investments Shape Outlook - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS THG Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Technology Investments Shape Outlook - stockstory.org — stockstory.org positive
- NEWS Hanover Insurance Group Inc Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $218.12, Implies 3% Downside - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicMichigan19%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'
- MEDIUMGeographicMichigan and Massachusetts personal lines50%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 50% of our Personal Lines net premiums written is generated in the combined states of Michigan and Massachusetts'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWPatricia A. Norton-Gatto (SVP/Corporate Controller) appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective May 13, 2026. Jeffrey M. Farber (EVP/CFO) no longer serves as PAO but retains CFO role. No reason cited for the designation change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $233.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $205.21 reached (−12.0%), stop $225.02 (−3.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $205.21 reached (−12.0% from $233.26); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $205.21 reached (−12.0%), stop $225.02 (−3.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $225.02.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover THG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $236.
What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%),...
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025, with Michigan representing 18.7% of total premiums and roughly half of Personal Lines premiums concentrated in Michigan and Massachusetts.