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ORIOld Republic International CorpHold6.5·$38.57+0.94%
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Old Republic International Corp (ORI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Old Republic International is a Chicago-based insurance holding company with Specialty Insurance (commercial auto, workers' comp, property, warranty) and Title Insurance segments, generating $9.1B in 2025 revenues. The company emphasizes underwriting discipline over cycles;... Read more

$38.57+1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#4 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield22.85%
IncomeYield3.27%(5y avg 3.31%)Payout29.19%sustainable
Stop $36.99Target $39.08(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$42.00+8.9%2 analysts
$39.08our TP
$38.57price
$42.00mean
$44

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.5
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE17.3%
Rev Growth13.5%
Beta0.65
Dividend3.27%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$45+16.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductCommercial Auto42%
    10-K Item 1: 'Commercial auto remains the Company's largest line of coverage and accounted for 42.1% of Specialty Insurance's consolidated net premiums earned in 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.34Resistance $39.88

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $39.08 (+1.3%), stop $36.99 (−4.3%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.08 (+1.3% upside). Target $39.08 (+1.3%), stop $36.99 (−4.3%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $36.99.

What are the risks of investing in ORI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ORI overvalued or undervalued?

Old Republic International Corp trades at a P/E of 9.5 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ORI?

8 analysts cover ORI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Old Republic International Corp do?Old Republic International is a Chicago-based insurance holding company with Specialty Insurance (commercial auto,...

Old Republic International is a Chicago-based insurance holding company with Specialty Insurance (commercial auto, workers' comp, property, warranty) and Title Insurance segments, generating $9.1B in 2025 revenues. The company emphasizes underwriting discipline over cycles; investment income supplements underwriting results.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro) · HCI (HCI Group, Inc.)
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