The business demonstrates best-in-class underwriting quality—evidenced by four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 13% above estimates, return on equity of 30%, and free cash flow running at 185% of net income—but the near-term technical trend has turned into a confirmed downtrend, and broker concentration at 60.6% among the top five partners presents a structural distribution risk.
Thesis pillars
- Broker Concentration Structural Risk↓Deteriorating
- Best In Class Quality And Moat↓Deteriorating
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $358.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Kinsale Capital Group underwrites hard-to-place excess and surplus lines risks across all 50 U.S. states and territories, distributed through approximately 227 independent brokers with no underwriting authority granted to outside parties. In 2025, gross written premiums grew... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $358.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
About Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
Kinsale Capital Group wrote $2.0 billion in gross written premiums during 2025, a 5.7% increase year-over-year, exclusively within the U.S. excess and surplus lines market spanning all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The combined ratio of 75.9% and return on equity of 29.3% for 2025 reflect a model that retains all underwriting and claims authority in-house. A.M. Best rates the operating subsidiary Kinsale Insurance Company "A" (Excellent).
Revenue flows from gross written premiums split 70.7% casualty and 29.3% property in 2025. Commercial lines accounted for 97.0% of premiums; personal lines — primarily high-value homeowners — represented 3.0%. Distribution runs through approximately 227 independent brokers, five of which together produced 60.6%, or $1.2 billion, of 2025 gross written premiums. The three largest — RSG Specialty ($371.2 million, 18.8%), AmWINS Brokerage ($339.0 million, 17.1%), and CRC Commercial Solutions ($231.2 million, 11.7%) — carry no minimum-volume obligations. California, Florida, and Texas represent the three largest states by gross written premium at 19.7%, 15.3%, and 14.0% respectively, flagged in the 10-K as states where any economic downturn could adversely affect results. The expense ratio of 20.8% and loss ratio of 55.1% in 2025 reflect a proprietary technology platform that allows underwriters to reply to most submissions within 24 hours without delegating binding authority.
Show full overview
Broker concentration at the distribution layer poses a dependency risk the 10-K explicitly calls out: the five-broker cluster generating 60.6% of premiums operates under relationships that "may be discontinued at any time." A downgrade of Kinsale Insurance Company's A.M. Best "A" rating — triggered by reserve deficiency, investment losses, or regulatory pressure — could cause the largest brokers to redirect submissions to higher-rated competitors, with no contractual volume floor providing protection. The reinsurance program adds a separate annual renewal risk: the 10-K notes reinsurance availability is subject to prevailing market conditions and cannot be guaranteed on acceptable terms.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Beats On Earnings, Is The Stock Already Fully Valued? - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Buys 36,203 Shares of Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. $KNSL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Is Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Undervalued Following Upbeat Earnings Expectations? - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-10-29T12:43:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-5 brokers61%10-K Item 1A: 'Of our 2025 gross written premiums, 60.6%, or $1.2 billion, were distributed through five of our approximately 227 brokers'
- LOWCustomerRSG Specialty LLC19%10-K Item 1: 'our largest brokers were RSG Specialty, LLC, which produced $371.2 million, or 18.8%, of our gross written premiums'
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida and Texas10-K Item 1A: 'We underwrite a significant portion of our insurance in California, Florida and Texas.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02MEDIUMCIO Diane Schnupp retired effective April 29, 2026. Successor: Salmaan Allibhai promoted to EVP and Chief Analytics and Technology Officer effective April 29, 2026. No disagreement with the company cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOWRetirement Agreement filed for former CIO Diane Schnupp. Severance: $20,833.33 per pay period Apr 30–Jul 31 2026; $1,041.67 per period Aug 15 2026–Mar 1 2028. Equity awards vest through Mar 2, 2028.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -8.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $358.42, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $304.79 reached (−15.0%), stop $335.20 (−6.9%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $304.79 reached (−15.0% from $358.42); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $304.79 reached (−15.0%), stop $335.20 (−6.9%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $335.20.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
18 analysts cover KNSL with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $350.
What does Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. do?Kinsale Capital Group underwrites hard-to-place excess and surplus lines risks across all 50 U.S. states and...
Kinsale Capital Group underwrites hard-to-place excess and surplus lines risks across all 50 U.S. states and territories, distributed through approximately 227 independent brokers with no underwriting authority granted to outside parties. In 2025, gross written premiums grew 5.7% to $2.0 billion, with a combined ratio of 75.9% and a 29.3% return on equity.