Asbury Automotive trades at a compelling 6.7 times forward earnings with a PEG below 1, but the thesis is constrained by a confirmed price downtrend, quality metrics below the minimum acceptable threshold, and a recent C-suite transition that adds execution uncertainty at a cyclically sensitive juncture.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value At Low Pe↓Deteriorating
- Quality Below Acceptable Floor↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Long Term Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $193.53: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Asbury Automotive Group operates 171 franchised dealerships across 15 states under 36 automobile brands, offering new and used vehicles, parts and service, and finance and insurance products through its Dealerships and TCA segments. Toyota/Lexus accounted for 30% of new vehicle... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $193.53: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 95d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Asbury Automotive Group Inc
About Asbury Automotive Group Inc
Asbury Automotive Group operated 171 dealership locations across 15 states under 36 automobile brands at December 31, 2025, with 223 franchises and 39 collision centers. The July 2025 Herb Chambers acquisition added 33 dealerships for approximately $1.76 billion, extending Asbury into the northeast United States. Toyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus) represented 30% of 2025 new vehicle revenues; Ford and Lincoln contributed 14%.
Revenue flows across four lines: new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance. The F&I segment includes products from TCA—a captive provider acquired in December 2021—offering extended service contracts, GAP cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and tire-and-wheel protection, which retains the underlying portfolio profit rather than ceding it to third-party insurers. Rollout of TCA products in the Florida market and Koons platform was completed in 2025; the Herb Chambers platform is targeted for completion in 2026. Parts and service revenues have been historically more stable than vehicle sales because manufacturer warranty and recall repairs must be performed at franchised locations, giving Asbury an inherent advantage over independent repair shops. The company targets a transaction-adjusted net leverage ratio of 2.5x to 3.5x; the ratio was 3.2x at year-end 2025 following acquisition financing.
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Discretionary-spending exposure is Asbury's clearest cyclical risk. New vehicle demand is directly sensitive to interest rates—monthly loan payments are a critical factor for many buyers—and to consumer confidence and fuel costs. The 10-K notes that inflation increases labor, fuel, and service costs faster than prices can be raised, compressing margins in a down cycle. Vehicle preference shifts toward electric and hybrid models may outpace manufacturer supply adaptation, disrupting used vehicle trade-in pipelines and parts revenue. In May 2026, Asbury filed an amended Form 8-K formalizing the employment agreement for incoming CEO Daniel Clara, whose succession was announced in December 2025.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
From Asbury Automotive Group Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Asbury Automotive Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Asbury Automotive Group, Raises Price Target to $204 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Raises Price Target on Asbury Automotive — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS ABG Sundal Collier Appointed Lead Manager for InstallatørGruppen Share Buy-Back Programme — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Craig-Hallum Upgrades Asbury Automotive Group to Buy — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Asbury Automotive Group Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierToyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus)30%10-K Item 1A: 'Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus)| 30 | %'
- LOWSupplierFord Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)14%10-K Item 1A: 'Ford Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)| 14 | %'
- LOWSupplierAmerican Honda Motor Co. (Honda and Acura)10%10-K Item 1A: 'American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (Honda and Acura)| 10 | %'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-06Item 5.02MEDIUMAsbury filed an 8-K/A formalizing the May 4, 2026 employment agreement with Daniel Clara upon his promotion to President and CEO, superseding his prior severance agreement. Agreement runs through May 4, 2027. Succession was originally announced December 8, 2025.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -8.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $193.53: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $179.98. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $195.83 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $179.98. Stop-loss: $179.98.
Target reached (1.2% upside); Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.0), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.07% of cap).
Asbury Automotive Group Inc trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover ABG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $225.
What does Asbury Automotive Group Inc do?Asbury Automotive Group operates 171 franchised dealerships across 15 states under 36 automobile brands, offering new...
Asbury Automotive Group operates 171 franchised dealerships across 15 states under 36 automobile brands, offering new and used vehicles, parts and service, and finance and insurance products through its Dealerships and TCA segments. Toyota/Lexus accounted for 30% of new vehicle revenues in 2025; the July 2025 Herb Chambers acquisition added 33 northeast dealerships for approximately $1.76 billion.