Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $197.90: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Asbury Automotive Group operates 171 franchised dealerships across 15 states under 36 automobile brands, offering new and used vehicles, parts and service, and finance and insurance products through its Dealerships and TCA segments. Toyota/Lexus accounted for 30% of new vehicle... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $197.90: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Asbury Automotive Group Inc
About Asbury Automotive Group Inc
Asbury Automotive Group operated 171 dealership locations across 15 states under 36 automobile brands at December 31, 2025, with 223 franchises and 39 collision centers. The July 2025 Herb Chambers acquisition added 33 dealerships for approximately $1.76 billion, extending Asbury into the northeast United States. Toyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus) represented 30% of 2025 new vehicle revenues; Ford and Lincoln contributed 14%.
Revenue flows across four lines: new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, parts and service, and finance and insurance. The F&I segment includes products from TCA—a captive provider acquired in December 2021—offering extended service contracts, GAP cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and tire-and-wheel protection, which retains the underlying portfolio profit rather than ceding it to third-party insurers. Rollout of TCA products in the Florida market and Koons platform was completed in 2025; the Herb Chambers platform is targeted for completion in 2026. Parts and service revenues have been historically more stable than vehicle sales because manufacturer warranty and recall repairs must be performed at franchised locations, giving Asbury an inherent advantage over independent repair shops. The company targets a transaction-adjusted net leverage ratio of 2.5x to 3.5x; the ratio was 3.2x at year-end 2025 following acquisition financing.
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Discretionary-spending exposure is Asbury's clearest cyclical risk. New vehicle demand is directly sensitive to interest rates—monthly loan payments are a critical factor for many buyers—and to consumer confidence and fuel costs. The 10-K notes that inflation increases labor, fuel, and service costs faster than prices can be raised, compressing margins in a down cycle. Vehicle preference shifts toward electric and hybrid models may outpace manufacturer supply adaptation, disrupting used vehicle trade-in pipelines and parts revenue. In May 2026, Asbury filed an amended Form 8-K formalizing the employment agreement for incoming CEO Daniel Clara, whose succession was announced in December 2025.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
From Asbury Automotive Group Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-12Recent Developments — Asbury Automotive Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Stephens & Co. Reiterates Overweight on Asbury Automotive Group, Maintains $242 Price Target — benzinga Jun 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Initiates Coverage On Asbury Automotive Group with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $202 — benzinga May 27, 2026
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Underweight on Asbury Automotive Group, Lowers Price Target to $220 — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Asbury Automotive Group Announces Formal Transition Of David Hult From CEO To Executive Chairman Effective May 4 — benzinga May 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Asbury Automotive Gr Q1 Adj. EPS $5.37 Misses $5.62 Estimate, Sales $4.113B Miss $4.375B Estimate — benzinga Apr 28, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierToyota Motor Sales (Toyota and Lexus)30%10-K Item 1A: 'Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (Toyota and Lexus)| 30 | %'
- LOWSupplierFord Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)14%10-K Item 1A: 'Ford Motor Company (Ford and Lincoln)| 14 | %'
- LOWSupplierAmerican Honda Motor Co. (Honda and Acura)10%10-K Item 1A: 'American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (Honda and Acura)| 10 | %'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-06Item 5.02MEDIUMAsbury filed an 8-K/A formalizing the May 4, 2026 employment agreement with Daniel Clara upon his promotion to President and CEO, superseding his prior severance agreement. Agreement runs through May 4, 2027. Succession was originally announced December 8, 2025.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $197.90: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $187.39. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $202.10 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $187.39. Stop-loss: $187.39.
Target reached (1.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.2%), Material insider selling (88 sells, 0.29% of cap).
Asbury Automotive Group Inc trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover ABG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $232.
What does Asbury Automotive Group Inc do?Asbury Automotive Group operates 171 franchised dealerships across 15 states under 36 automobile brands, offering new...
Asbury Automotive Group operates 171 franchised dealerships across 15 states under 36 automobile brands, offering new and used vehicles, parts and service, and finance and insurance products through its Dealerships and TCA segments. Toyota/Lexus accounted for 30% of new vehicle revenues in 2025; the July 2025 Herb Chambers acquisition added 33 northeast dealerships for approximately $1.76 billion.