Valvoline is an automotive quick-lube service company with 25% revenue growth, 32% return on equity, and a recovery technical pattern with improving MACD, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with essentially zero upside remaining, a risk score below the minimum threshold at 2.7, and 14% short interest combined with a 4.60 put/call ratio signaling intense bearish conviction.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Growth High Roe→Stable
- Target Reached Extreme Options Risk↓Deteriorating
- Recovery Pattern Overbought Signal↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 21, 2025
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.77: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.77: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Valvoline Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS VVV Sports Limited: Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Piper Sandler reiterates Valvoline stock rating on solid quarter outlook By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia positive
- NEWS Piper Sandler reiterates Valvoline stock rating on solid quarter outlook By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria positive
- NEWS Piper Sandler reiterates Valvoline stock rating on solid quarter outlook - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Piper Sandler reiterates Valvoline stock rating on solid quarter outlook By Investing.com - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.77: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $29.93. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $38.08 (+19.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.93. Stop-loss: $29.93.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5; Below 200-day MA.
Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.
What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...
Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.