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VVVValvoline Inc.Sell5.5·$38.31+1.86%
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Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to... Read more

$38.31+0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.99%
Stop $35.92Target $38.23(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$42.20+10.2%15 analysts
$38.23our TP
$38.31price
$42.20mean
$35
$48

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.1
P/E (Fwd)18.2
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn5.0%
ROE31.8%
Rev Growth25.0%
Beta1.03
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.60bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$20-47.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
1.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.5
GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.41Resistance $39.01

Price Targets

$36
$38
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VVV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Prior stop was $35.92. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the VVV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.23 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $35.92. Stop-loss: $35.92.

What are the risks of investing in VVV?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is VVV overvalued or undervalued?

Valvoline Inc. trades at a P/E of 50.1 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VVV?

22 analysts cover VVV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Valvoline Inc. do?Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its...

Valvoline Inc. is a leader in automotive preventive maintenance delivering convenient and trusted services in its retail stores throughout the United States ("U.S.") and Canada. The terms "Valvoline," the "Company," "we," "us," "management," and "our" as used herein refer to Valvoline Inc., its predecessors and its consolidated subsidiaries, except where the context indicates otherwise.

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