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CARGCarGurus, Inc.Hold5.9·$27.17-1.84%
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CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum.

CarGurus runs automotive shopping marketplaces in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.—including PistonHeads and Autolist—connecting consumers with dealers, earning revenue from dealer subscriptions, OEM advertising, and financing partnerships. The company wound down its CarOffer... Read more

$27.17+19.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield8.95%
Stop $25.98Target $32.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$37.38+37.6%13 analysts
$32.52our TP
$27.17price
$37.38mean
$43

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CarGurus, Inc.

About CarGurus, Inc.

CarGurus' marketplace connects car shoppers with dealers across three geographies—the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.—plus the PistonHeads enthusiast platform in the U.K. and Autolist in the U.S. The board determined on August 6, 2025 to wind down CarOffer, LLC, and the business was considered abandoned for accounting purposes by December 31, 2025. The U.S. platform ranked first in automotive shopping site traffic in Q4 2025 according to Similarweb, with the largest inventory selection compared to Autotrader.com, Cars.com, TrueCar.com, and CARFAX.com. Beginning Q4 2025, CarGurus reports as a single segment.

Dealers pay monthly subscription fees for tiered listing packages—Enhanced, Featured+, and Featured Priority+—granting access to leads, pricing intelligence tools (PriceVantage, IMV Scan, Next Best Deal Rating), and conversion products (Digital Deal, Pre-Qualified Leads, LeadAI). The majority of dealer contracts carry one-month committed terms, exposing revenue to monthly churn if dealers reduce platform ROI attribution or consolidate. Auto manufacturers purchase targeted advertising through brand reinforcement, category sponsorship, and segment exclusivity products on CarGurus and third-party platforms. Financing revenue is earned on funded loans generated through Digital Deal pre-qualification. The 10-K identifies dealer consolidation as a structural risk: when dealers merge, the combined entity often purchases fewer subscriptions than predecessor firms did separately, compressing aggregate demand for the company's products and services.

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The 10-K identifies dependence on internet search engines—specifically Google, Bing, and Yahoo!—as a key traffic risk, noting that search engines now display AI-generated answer pages that may not surface the CarGurus website. The filing also notes that consumers may shift to AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants rather than traditional search, which could reduce platform traffic independent of product quality. Separately, dealers face rising vehicle affordability pressures—elevated vehicle pricing, higher auto-finance rates, and rising insurance costs—that dampen consumer buying activity and may reduce the volume of transactions that CarGurus' platform facilitates.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

From CarGurus, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn15.9%
ROE58.5%
Rev Growth14.8%
Beta1.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV103%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.3
Revenue Growth
6.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.2
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.78Resistance $30.77

Price Targets

$26
$33
A.Upside+19.7%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CARG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $27.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.52 (+19.7%), stop $25.98 (−4.6%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CARG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.52 (+19.7% upside). Target $32.52 (+19.7%), stop $25.98 (−4.6%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $25.98.

What are the risks of investing in CARG?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is CARG overvalued or undervalued?

CarGurus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CARG?

20 analysts cover CARG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $37.

What does CarGurus, Inc. do?CarGurus runs automotive shopping marketplaces in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.—including PistonHeads and...

CarGurus runs automotive shopping marketplaces in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.—including PistonHeads and Autolist—connecting consumers with dealers, earning revenue from dealer subscriptions, OEM advertising, and financing partnerships. The company wound down its CarOffer digital wholesale platform in December 2025 and now reports as a single segment; the U.S. site ranked No. 1 in automotive shopping traffic in Q4 2025 per Similarweb.

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