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AADXApplied Aerospace & Defense, InSell6.3·$11.82
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Applied Aerospace & Defense is growing revenue rapidly (47% YoY) with a 99.0% upside to the analyst target, but weak profitability, a recent large earnings miss and a 59% drawdown make it a speculative holding.

Thesis pillars

  • Weak Profitability Quality→Stable
  • Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Recent Earnings Miss↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Applied Aerospace & Defense, In (AADX) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.82: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. designs, engineers, and manufactures integrated aerospace and defense subsystems for space and defense applications. The company provides Space and launch Systems, which include propellant tanks and engine nozzles; nose cones, fairings, and... Read more

$11.82+65.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#11 of 65 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $10.99Analyst target $19.57(−13% haircut)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst consensus$22.50+90.4%8 analysts
$19.57Analyst target
$11.82price
$22.50mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.82: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30

Recent Developments — Applied Aerospace & Defense, In

Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:44Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 11, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)29.7
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-133.8
Profit Mgn-30.2%
ROE—
Rev Growth47.4%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV88%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.0
Support Resistance
2.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings in 11 days

Unprofitable operations — net margin -30.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.1
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.5
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
53 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $9.40Resistance $12.69

Price Targets

$11
$20
A.Upside+65.6%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AADX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.82: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.99. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AADX stock price target?

Analyst target: $19.57 (+65.6% upside). Prior stop was $10.99. Stop-loss: $10.99.

What are the risks of investing in AADX?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is AADX overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Aerospace & Defense, In trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 29.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AADX?

14 analysts cover AADX with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Applied Aerospace & Defense, In do?Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. designs, engineers, and manufactures integrated aerospace and defense subsystems for...

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. designs, engineers, and manufactures integrated aerospace and defense subsystems for space and defense applications. The company provides Space and launch Systems, which include propellant tanks and engine nozzles; nose cones, fairings, and payload adapters; solar arrays and deployable systems; satellite bus and payload assemblies; Spinnaker® de-orbit systems; antennas and precision platforms; and landing legs, tubes, and booms; Defense Aviation and Airborne Systems, which support airborne mission platforms for air dominance, ground attack, electronic warfare, air-to-air refueling, transport, and autonomous collaborative combat, and include wings and control surfaces, landing gear and arresters, engine shafts, gears, and transmissions; fuel tanks and refueling booms; and fuselage structures; C5ISR and Precision Strike Systems, which support land and maritime based integrated defense systems for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, forward presence, and stand-off missions, and include radar and communications antennas; missile bodies and launchers; directed energy systems; and electronic enclosures; detection and tracking platforms; and maritime sensors and propulsion. It also provides design, prototyping and manufacturing of hardware and assemblies using composite, metallic, and polymer manufacturing. The company uses IP-enabled processes and production supported by specialized equipment and experience. It offers in-house testing and inspection along with materials and testing services to support performance and verification requirements. The company also provides Spinnaker® Deorbit Systems with configurations for satellites and launch vehicle components to support de-orbit applications. The company was formerly known as GB Eagle Topco, Inc. and changed its name to Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. in November 2025. Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. was incorporated in 2022 and is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama. Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. is a subsidiary of AA&D Holdings, LP.

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