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AVEXAEVEX Corp.Buy Wait6.0·$17.60+1.03%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AEVEX Corp pairs positive news sentiment and an industry-leading growth rank with a rich forward multiple, an EXTREME insider-selling gate failure, and a stock still sitting at the bottom of its 52-week range.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Sentiment Growth LeadershipStable
  • Extreme Insider Selling Neutral SignalStable
  • Rich Forward Multiple Vs PegStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AEVEX Corp. (AVEX) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Wait for pullback to $16.55. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $17.60. Engine's entry $16.55 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Negative momentum.

AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance strategy mission. The company operates in two segments, Tactical Systems and Global Solutions. The Tactical Systems designs and manufactures battle-tested,... Read more

$17.60+88.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#16 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield
Entry $16.55(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $12.42Target $31.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.3:1
Analyst target$35.75+103.1%8 analysts
$31.10our TP
$17.60price
$35.75mean
$45

Wait for pullback to $16.55. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $17.60. Engine's entry $16.55 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.83)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 79%
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.3
P/E (Fwd)39.3
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE
Rev Growth306.9%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV123%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Ma Position
2.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5INSIDER 5.21%=EXTREMEA.R:R 5.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $15.07Resistance $24.41

Price Targets

$12
$17
$31
A.Upside+76.7%
A.R:R5.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 5.21%=extreme

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVEX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $16.55. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $17.60. Engine's entry $16.55 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $31.10 (+76.7%), stop $12.42 (−41.7%), A.R:R 5.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.10 (+88.7% upside). Target $31.10 (+76.7%), stop $12.42 (−41.7%), A.R:R 5.3:1. Stop-loss: $12.42.

What are the risks of investing in AVEX?

Negative momentum.

Is AVEX overvalued or undervalued?

AEVEX Corp. trades at a P/E of 50.3 (forward 39.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AVEX?

15 analysts cover AVEX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $36.

What does AEVEX Corp. do?AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance...

AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance strategy mission. The company operates in two segments, Tactical Systems and Global Solutions. The Tactical Systems designs and manufactures battle-tested, autonomous, modular, and attritable unmanned systems, including UAS and unmanned surface vehicles with other mission critical products. The Global Solutions provides bespoke mission solutions, including AI-enabled airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), C-UAS, additive manufacturing, and specialized mission aircraft engineering, modification, and testing. The company was founded in 2020 and is based in Solana Beach, California.

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