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AVEXAEVEX Corp.Sell6.4·$12.19
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AEVEX is a defense name growing revenue about 100% YoY at a PEG of 0.07 with 107% analyst-implied upside, but it is down 74% from its high with negative momentum and below-average quality.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Average Quality↓Deteriorating
  • Hypergrowth Defense Contractor→Stable
  • Cheap On Growth Adjusted Basis↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AEVEX Corp. (AVEX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance strategy mission. The company operates in two segments, Tactical Systems and Global Solutions. The Tactical Systems designs and manufactures battle-tested,... Read more

$12.19+84.1% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#5 of 65 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $11.34Analyst target $22.45(−13% haircut)A.R:R 5.6:1
Analyst consensus$25.80+111.6%10 analysts
$22.45Analyst target
$12.19price
$25.80mean
$45

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 11, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Analyst upside: 84%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)58.0
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$844M
EV/EBITDA17.2
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE—
Rev Growth99.5%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV93%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.4
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
2.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $9.64Resistance $15.81

Price Targets

$11
$22
A.Upside+84.1%
A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-11 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.19 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $11.34. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVEX stock price target?

Analyst target: $22.45 (+84.1% upside). Prior stop was $11.34. Stop-loss: $11.34.

What are the risks of investing in AVEX?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is AVEX overvalued or undervalued?

AEVEX Corp. trades at a P/E of 58.0 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AVEX?

16 analysts cover AVEX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $26.

What does AEVEX Corp. do?AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance...

AEVEX Corp. operates as a defense technology contractor and enabler of the U.S. Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) dominance strategy mission. The company operates in two segments, Tactical Systems and Global Solutions. The Tactical Systems designs and manufactures battle-tested, autonomous, modular, and attritable unmanned systems, including UAS and unmanned surface vehicles with other mission critical products. The Global Solutions provides bespoke mission solutions, including AI-enabled airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), C-UAS, additive manufacturing, and specialized mission aircraft engineering, modification, and testing. The company was founded in 2020 and is based in Solana Beach, California.

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