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YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.Buy Now7.1·$8.43-0.35%
Buy NowModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Full Truck Alliance is a high-quality Chinese freight-matching platform with 33% net margins, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and a Rule of 40 score of 41, trading at a forward P/E of 9.9x with 34% analyst upside, though a confirmed death-cross downtrend and elevated put-to-call ratio of 5.5 reflect near-term institutional caution.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Margins Rule Of 40Stable
  • Death Cross Downtrend HeadwindStable
  • Attractive Valuation Peer LeadingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy Now (conditional)DEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Conditional: death cross active, analysts disagree (1.8× target spread) — below strong-conviction threshold. Size accordingly.

Technology · Software - Application

Buy now at $8.43. A.R:R 3.0:1 at $8.43 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $11.32 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$3 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 7.5 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 6.6 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 3.0:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: moderate — not a conservative entry. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers... Read more

$8.43+34.3% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield51.44%
IncomeYield1.99%Payout17.07%sustainable
Entry $8.43(at market)Stop $7.84Target $11.32(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$12.58+49.2%15 analysts
$11.32our TP
$8.43price
$12.58mean
$17

Buy now at $8.43. A.R:R 3.0:1 at $8.43 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $11.32 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$3 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 7.5 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 6.6 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 3.0:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: moderate — not a conservative entry. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Quality-value combo with favorable entry timing. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 10/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 6/10). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA-2.1
Profit Mgn32.7%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta0.29
Dividend1.99%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$13+48.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.2
Bollinger
3.1
Support Resistance
4.1
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.6>=5.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Technology 6/10RecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.46Resistance $9.11

Price Targets

$8
$8
$11
A.Upside+34.3%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %3.9%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$13

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YMM stock a buy right now?

Buy now at $8.43. A.R:R 3.0:1 at $8.43 — the engine's gate value (upside to target $11.32 vs. downside set by the wider of 2×ATR or distance-to-support, clipped 5-15%). You'd stand to gain ~$3 per share to target. Chart is structurally weak: below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). BUY_NOW holds because Quality 7.5 (≥ 7.5) and Momentum 6.6 (≥ 5.0) clear the death-cross exemption, with A.R:R 3.0:1 vs. the 1.5:1 minimum providing the reward cushion. Suitability: moderate — not a conservative entry. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Quality-value combo with favorable entry timing. Target $11.32 (+34.3%), stop $7.84 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.32 (+34.3% upside). Target $11.32 (+34.3%), stop $7.84 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $7.84.

What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Strong Buy.

What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. do?Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects...

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

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