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TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd.Sell5.4·$220.50+17.39%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tower Semiconductor has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average 10.9% positive surprise and shows strong revenue and earnings growth scores of 8.2 out of 10, but a forward P/E of 50x with a PEG of 8.26 reflects expensive growth expectations that leave little margin for error.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Growth Semiconductor Profile
  • Expensive Valuation High PeImproving
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 5 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $220.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Expensive valuation; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Tower Semiconductor Ltd., an independent semiconductor foundry, provides technology, development, and process platforms for integrated circuits in the United States, Japan, rest of Asia, and Europe. The company provides customizable process technologies, including SiGe, SiPho,... Read more

$220.50+29.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#33 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.61%
Stop $196.38Target $273.04(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$313.83+42.3%6 analysts
$273.04our TP
$220.50price
$313.83mean
$335

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $220.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Expensive valuation; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)94.4
P/E (Fwd)32.3
Mkt Cap$21.2B
EV/EBITDA36.8
Profit Mgn15.1%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth15.5%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV120%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
0.3
Ps
1.3
Peg Ratio
2.0
Forward Pe
3.5
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 32.3xPEG: 5.85
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $185.07Resistance $274.00

Price Targets

$196
$273
A.Upside+29.3%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSEM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $220.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Expensive valuation; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $196.38. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TSEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $273.04 (+29.3% upside). Prior stop was $196.38. Stop-loss: $196.38.

What are the risks of investing in TSEM?

Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is TSEM overvalued or undervalued?

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. trades at a P/E of 94.4 (forward 32.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TSEM?

11 analysts cover TSEM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $314.

What does Tower Semiconductor Ltd. do?Tower Semiconductor Ltd., an independent semiconductor foundry, provides technology, development, and process platforms...

Tower Semiconductor Ltd., an independent semiconductor foundry, provides technology, development, and process platforms for integrated circuits in the United States, Japan, rest of Asia, and Europe. The company provides customizable process technologies, including SiGe, SiPho, mixed signal CMOS, RF CMOS, CMOS image sensor, non-imaging sensors, wafers, and integrated power management. It also offers a design enablement platform for a design cycle, as well as transfer optimization and development process services to integrated device manufacturers and fabless companies. The company serves consumer applications, personal computers, communications, handsets and smartphones, automotive, industrial, aerospace, and medical devices. Tower Semiconductor Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Migdal Haemek, Israel

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