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ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.Buy Wait6.0·$418.00+1.42%
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Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $354.77. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $418.00. Engine's entry $354.77 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries.

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025... Read more

$418.00+9.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#7 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.90%
IncomeYield1.05%(5y avg 1.66%)Payout60.57%
Entry $354.77(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $314.41Target $430.91(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$451.03+7.9%31 analysts
$430.91our TP
$418.00price
$451.03mean
$363
$515

Wait for pullback to $354.77. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $418.00. Engine's entry $354.77 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 19, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)62.1
P/E (Fwd)28.3
Mkt Cap$203.5B
EV/EBITDA34.0
Profit Mgn26.0%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth37.2%
Beta1.18
Dividend1.05%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$600+43.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerthird-party distributors56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of our revenue in the year ended November 1, 2025.'
  • HIGHSupplierTSMC and other wafer foundries
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently source more than half of our wafer requirements annually from third-party wafer foundries, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and others.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders at the March 11, 2026 Annual Meeting approved the Amended and Restated Analog Devices 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, adopted by the Board of Directors on December 10, 2025. Routine compensatory arrangement approval; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.3
Peg Ratio
7.5
Forward P/E: 28.3xPEG: 0.91
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $380.18Resistance $439.70

Price Targets

$314
$355
$431
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-19 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $354.77. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $418.00. Engine's entry $354.77 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.7% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $430.91 (+3.1%), stop $314.41 (−32.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $430.91 (+9.8% upside). Target $430.91 (+3.1%), stop $314.41 (−32.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $314.41.

What are the risks of investing in ADI?

Concentration risk — Customer: third-party distributors (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC and other wafer foundries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ADI overvalued or undervalued?

Analog Devices, Inc. trades at a P/E of 62.1 (forward 28.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADI?

39 analysts cover ADI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $451.

What does Analog Devices, Inc. do?Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in...

Analog Devices designs and sells high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital ICs across four end markets in fiscal 2025: Industrial (45%), Automotive (30%), Consumer (13%), and Communications (13%). Third-party distributors accounted for approximately 56% of fiscal 2025 revenue across a portfolio of more than 75,000 SKUs sold to OEM customers globally.

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