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SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc.Hold6.1·$37.24-0.53%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Standard Motor Products combines a perfect earnings beat streak and attractively valued, cash-generative fundamentals with a near-term technical pullback and thin risk/reward margin that the market has yet to resolve.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Thin Risk Reward MarginStable
  • Attractive Valuation Strong Cash ConversionStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Standard Motor Products manufactures and distributes premium replacement parts for the automotive aftermarket and custom-engineered components for non-aftermarket end markets, organized into four segments: Vehicle Control, Temperature Control, Nissens Automotive (acquired... Read more

$37.24+10.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#9 of 37 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.70%
IncomeYield3.48%(5y avg 3.10%)Payout33.87%sustainable
Stop $35.53Target $41.08(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$48.33+29.8%3 analysts
$41.08our TP
$37.24price
$48.33mean
$54

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 32%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$843M
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.81
Dividend3.48%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV67%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.63Resistance $40.78

Price Targets

$36
$41
A.Upside+10.3%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $41.08 (+10.3%), stop $35.53 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.08 (+10.3% upside). Target $41.08 (+10.3%), stop $35.53 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $35.53.

What are the risks of investing in SMP?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is SMP overvalued or undervalued?

Standard Motor Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SMP?

7 analysts cover SMP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Standard Motor Products, Inc. do?Standard Motor Products manufactures and distributes premium replacement parts for the automotive aftermarket and...

Standard Motor Products manufactures and distributes premium replacement parts for the automotive aftermarket and custom-engineered components for non-aftermarket end markets, organized into four segments: Vehicle Control, Temperature Control, Nissens Automotive (acquired November 2024), and Engineered Solutions. The company sells to major retailers, distributors, and OEMs across the U.S. and Europe, with three unnamed customers each representing more than 10% of 2025 consolidated net sales, at 25.2%, 18.6%, and 10.5% respectively.

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