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SAROStandardAero, Inc.Sell5.7·$28.98+0.87%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StandardAero's consistent value ranking in the top quartile of aerospace and defense peers and 32% analyst upside suggest the market is underpricing its engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities, but a borderline quality score and heavy dependence on four OEM suppliers introduce structural fragility.

Thesis pillars

  • Oem Supplier ConcentrationImproving
  • Peer Value Ranking StrengthStable
  • Analyst Upside 32 PercentDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 7 days (2026-08-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.98: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million,... Read more

$28.98+6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#32 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield0.96%
Stop $26.96Target $30.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$35.50+22.5%13 analysts
$30.89our TP
$28.98price
$35.50mean
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.98: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.2
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop four OEM customers36%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top four OEM customers accounted for approximately 36% and 41% of our revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierfour largest OEM parts suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest parts suppliers, which consisted of OEMs, accounted for a substantial majority of our total parts purchases'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. military end-users18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Services to our military end-users accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO Russell Ford retiring effective Oct 1, 2026; succeeded by Paul McElhinney (current Lead Independent Director, 35-year industry veteran), effective Oct 1, 2026. Ford continues as Executive Chairman through Dec 31, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.4
Fcf Quality
2.5
Operating Margin
3.5
Roa
3.6
Roe
3.8
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
7.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.20Resistance $31.02

Price Targets

$27
$31
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SARO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.98: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $26.96. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SARO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.89 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $26.96. Stop-loss: $26.96.

What are the risks of investing in SARO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is SARO overvalued or undervalued?

StandardAero, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.2 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SARO?

20 analysts cover SARO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does StandardAero, Inc. do?StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft...

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of 2025 revenue; approximately 80% of total revenue is derived from customers under long-term agreements.

Related stocks: HEI (Heico Corporation) · LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) · FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation)
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