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SAROStandardAero, Inc.Sell5.8·$23.79
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StandardAero's consistent value ranking in the top quartile of aerospace and defense peers and 32% analyst upside suggest the market is underpricing its engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities, but a borderline quality score and heavy dependence on four OEM suppliers introduce structural fragility.

Thesis pillars

  • Oem Supplier Concentration→Stable
  • Peer Value Ranking Strength→Stable
  • Analyst Upside 32 Percent↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $23.79: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million,... Read more

$23.79+23.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#33 of 65 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.69%
Stop $22.19Analyst target $29.29(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst consensus$33.67+41.5%14 analysts
$29.29Analyst target
$23.79price
$33.67mean
$42

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $23.79: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.5
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$7.9B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta0.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$18-26.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop four OEM customers36%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top four OEM customers accounted for approximately 36% and 41% of our revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierfour largest OEM parts suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest parts suppliers, which consisted of OEMs, accounted for a substantial majority of our total parts purchases'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. military end-users18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Services to our military end-users accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO Russell Ford retiring effective Oct 1, 2026; succeeded by Paul McElhinney (current Lead Independent Director, 35-year industry veteran), effective Oct 1, 2026. Ford continues as Executive Chairman through Dec 31, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
3.8
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
4.9
Value Rank
8.4
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.7>=5.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
87 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.56Resistance $24.12

Price Targets

$22
$29
A.Upside+23.1%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SARO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $23.79: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87. Prior stop was $22.19. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SARO stock price target?

Analyst target: $29.29 (+23.1% upside). Prior stop was $22.19. Stop-loss: $22.19.

What are the risks of investing in SARO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is SARO overvalued or undervalued?

StandardAero, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SARO?

21 analysts cover SARO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $34.

What does StandardAero, Inc. do?StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft...

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of 2025 revenue; approximately 80% of total revenue is derived from customers under long-term agreements.

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