Saia's solid earnings beat streak and above-average technical momentum cannot overcome a negative analyst upside and free cash flow conversion rate of only 14%, making the stock a hold at best until valuation normalizes to a more attractive entry point.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Rich Valuation Negative Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $350.57: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $350.57: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Saia, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Saia Q2 EPS $3.51 Beats $3.32 Estimate, Sales $956.500M Beat $951.296M Estimate — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Neutral on Saia, Raises Price Target to $470 — benzinga Jul 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Raymond James Maintains Outperform on Saia, Lowers Price Target to $475 — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS Keysight To Rally Over 24%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Monday — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS B of A Securities Upgrades Saia to Buy, Raises Price Target to $502 — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-31T07:18:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $350.57: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $331.34. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $418.37 (+19.3% upside). Prior stop was $331.34. Stop-loss: $331.34.
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Saia, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.1 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover SAIA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $465.
What does Saia, Inc. do?We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately...
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload and expedited transportation and other logistics services across North America.