Sturm, Ruger screens as growth-adjusted cheap and conservatively financed with recent insider buying, but sub-floor quality, a failed momentum gate, and a persistent earnings-miss streak suggest the market's caution may be well founded.
Thesis pillars
- Growth Adjusted Cheap Valuation→Stable
- Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Pullback Not Confirmed Weakness→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.45: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality.
Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, with a small castings/MIM segment also serving outside industrial customers.... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.45: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Sturm, Ruger's firearms segment generated $543.5 million of the company's roughly $546.1 million in total 2025 net sales, with rifles contributing $338.2 million, pistols $141.9 million, and revolvers $39.2 million; the castings and metal-injection-molding segment, which also supplies component parts for Ruger's own firearms, added about $2.6 million from outside customers. The company employed approximately 1,780 full-time workers across four U.S. manufacturing plants in New Hampshire, Arizona, North Carolina, and Kentucky as of February 2026.
Ruger sells almost exclusively through independent wholesale distributors - 13 for the domestic commercial market, 26 for law enforcement, and 44 for export - who resell to federally licensed retailers subject to point-of-sale background checks. Three distributors accounted for the bulk of 2025 firearms sales: Lipsey's at 27%, Sports South at 22%, and Davidson's at 18%, a pattern that has persisted across each of the past three fiscal years with the same three names rotating the top spots. Export sales, mostly to law enforcement agencies and foreign governments, represented about 5% of consolidated net sales in 2025. Manufacturing runs across the Newport, New Hampshire; Prescott, Arizona; Mayodan, North Carolina; and Hebron, Kentucky facilities, the last acquired in July 2025, with castings and metal-injection-molded parts produced in-house rather than sourced from outside vendors.
Show full overview
Together, Lipsey's, Sports South, and Davidson's represented 67% of Ruger's 2025 firearms sales, up from 62% in 2024, concentrating distribution risk in three wholesale relationships even though end demand originates with individual retail buyers rather than the distributors. Ruger states that losing any single distributor would not likely cause a material long-term effect, though it could still weigh on the company's results for a particular period.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-08Recent Developments — Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS U.S. Supreme Court Agrees To Hear Challenge To Laws Banning Assault Rifles — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-08T22:53:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.45: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.17. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.95 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $36.17. Stop-loss: $36.17.
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover RGR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. do?Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily...
Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, with a small castings/MIM segment also serving outside industrial customers. Firearms sales reached $543.5 million in 2025, with three distributors - Lipsey's (27%), Sports South (22%), and Davidson's (18%) - together representing the majority of firearms sales, and export sales at about 5%.