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RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.Sell5.4·$38.45+0.44%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Sturm, Ruger screens as growth-adjusted cheap and conservatively financed with recent insider buying, but sub-floor quality, a failed momentum gate, and a persistent earnings-miss streak suggest the market's caution may be well founded.

Thesis pillars

  • Growth Adjusted Cheap ValuationStable
  • Quality Below FloorStable
  • Pullback Not Confirmed WeaknessStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.45: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality.

Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, with a small castings/MIM segment also serving outside industrial customers.... Read more

$38.45+3.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#45 of 64 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.90%
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 3.03%)Payout492.86%at-risk
Stop $36.17Target $39.95(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$47.00+22.2%2 analysts
$39.95our TP
$38.45price
$47.00mean
$48

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.45: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.

About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.

Sturm, Ruger's firearms segment generated $543.5 million of the company's roughly $546.1 million in total 2025 net sales, with rifles contributing $338.2 million, pistols $141.9 million, and revolvers $39.2 million; the castings and metal-injection-molding segment, which also supplies component parts for Ruger's own firearms, added about $2.6 million from outside customers. The company employed approximately 1,780 full-time workers across four U.S. manufacturing plants in New Hampshire, Arizona, North Carolina, and Kentucky as of February 2026.

Ruger sells almost exclusively through independent wholesale distributors - 13 for the domestic commercial market, 26 for law enforcement, and 44 for export - who resell to federally licensed retailers subject to point-of-sale background checks. Three distributors accounted for the bulk of 2025 firearms sales: Lipsey's at 27%, Sports South at 22%, and Davidson's at 18%, a pattern that has persisted across each of the past three fiscal years with the same three names rotating the top spots. Export sales, mostly to law enforcement agencies and foreign governments, represented about 5% of consolidated net sales in 2025. Manufacturing runs across the Newport, New Hampshire; Prescott, Arizona; Mayodan, North Carolina; and Hebron, Kentucky facilities, the last acquired in July 2025, with castings and metal-injection-molded parts produced in-house rather than sourced from outside vendors.

Show full overview

Together, Lipsey's, Sports South, and Davidson's represented 67% of Ruger's 2025 firearms sales, up from 62% in 2024, concentrating distribution risk in three wholesale relationships even though end demand originates with individual retail buyers rather than the distributors. Ruger states that losing any single distributor would not likely cause a material long-term effect, though it could still weigh on the company's results for a particular period.

See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

From Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-07-08T22:53:48Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202622d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.1
Mkt Cap$603M
EV/EBITDA86.5
Profit Mgn-2.2%
ROE-4.0%
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta0.22
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.6
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
9.5
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 22d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.10Resistance $41.23

Price Targets

$36
$40
A.Upside+3.9%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (22d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RGR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.45: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.17. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RGR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.95 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $36.17. Stop-loss: $36.17.

What are the risks of investing in RGR?

Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is RGR overvalued or undervalued?

Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RGR?

6 analysts cover RGR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. do?Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily...

Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, with a small castings/MIM segment also serving outside industrial customers. Firearms sales reached $543.5 million in 2025, with three distributors - Lipsey's (27%), Sports South (22%), and Davidson's (18%) - together representing the majority of firearms sales, and export sales at about 5%.

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