V2X is a defense logistics and support services company with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak averaging 19.9% positive surprise, 23% revenue growth, and 147% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, but the stock has already surpassed its analyst price target with -18.2% negative upside, and heavy customer concentration in a single U.S. government contract program creates a tail risk that the low quality score of 3.8 reflects.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Defense Execution↓Deteriorating
- Government Customer Concentration→Stable
- Negative Asymmetry Above Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026
V2X, Inc. (VVX) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.
V2X, Inc. provides critical mission solutions to defense customers across 349 locations in 49 countries, offering readiness, logistics, training, communications, and platform maintenance services. The company generated $4.48 billion in 2025 revenue primarily from U.S. Army,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About V2X, Inc.
About V2X, Inc.
V2X generated $4.48 billion in 2025 revenue across U.S. Army ($1.83 billion), Navy ($1.48 billion), Air Force ($571 million), and other customers ($601 million), with operations in 349 locations across 49 countries and 16,200 full-time employees and 7,300 subcontract personnel. The company served as prime contractor on contracts representing 95% of 2025 revenue. Approximately 30% of employees are covered by 60 collective bargaining agreements.
V2X earns revenue under cost-plus and cost-reimbursable contracts (61% of 2025 revenue), firm-fixed-price contracts (36%), and time-and-materials contracts (3%). Government customers award multi-year IDIQ contracts from which task orders are competitively issued within pools of pre-qualified contractors. Key recurring programs include the LOGCAP V Kuwait Task Order ($441.6 million, or 9.9% of 2025 revenue, expected to extend through June 2030) and the Warfighter Training Readiness Solutions Program under the ASTRO IDIQ contract, a sole-source task order supporting U.S. Army combat training systems. Revenue depends substantially on the Department of War budget, determined by congressional appropriations on an October 1 to September 30 fiscal year cycle. Recompetes — when existing contracts expire and are rebid — expose the company to market share loss, and contract termination for convenience may occur at any time with little notice. Key competitors include Amentum Holdings, Leidos Holdings, Science Applications International Corp., General Dynamics, and KBR.
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Firm-fixed-price contracts (36% of 2025 revenue) concentrate margin risk during periods of cost inflation because V2X bears overrun exposure directly, with limited recovery options absent a successful equitable adjustment claim to the Contracting Officer. The 10-K explicitly cites the 2025 U.S. federal government shutdown as an operational disruption risk. The 30% unionized workforce is covered by 60 collective bargaining agreements subject to periodic renegotiation; the company does not expect contracts renegotiated in 2026 to present significant risk individually or collectively.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From V2X, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — V2X, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on V2X, Lowers Price Target to $81 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Cuts Price Target on V2X to $81 From $88 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS V2X Awarded $19M IDIQ Contract By U.S. Marine Corps To Deliver Tempest Counter-Unmanned Aerial System Vehicles — benzinga Sep 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS V2X Announces $391M Base Value Contract, Up To $500M With All Options, From Marine Corps Logistics Command For Secondary — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS V2X Receives $87M U.S. Navy Order To Support F/A-18 Super Hornet, EA-18G Growler Aircraft — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a substantial majority of our revenue from our contracts with the U.S. federal government'
- LOWCustomerKuwait Task Order under LOGCAP V9.9%10-K Item 1A: 'the Kuwait Task Order under the LOGCAP V contract vehicle ... amounted to approximately $441.6 million, or 9.9% of our revenue'
- HIGHCustomerWTRS Program sole source task order10-K Item 1: 'The Warfighter Training Readiness Solutions (WTRS) Program ... as a sole source task order under the ASTRO IDIQ contract.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWDirector Steven L. Waechter's term ended at the 2026 Annual Meeting (May 7, 2026) per board age policy (75+ at time of meeting). No disagreement cited. Gerard A. Fasano and Nicole B. Theophilus named replacements on Compensation and NG committees respectively. Board reduced from 10 to 9.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $75.62. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $77.35 reached (−3.9% from $80.52); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $75.62. Stop-loss: $75.62.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government; Concentration risk — Customer: WTRS Program sole source task order; Target reached (-3.9% upside).
V2X, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.8 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover VVX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $89.
What does V2X, Inc. do?V2X, Inc. provides critical mission solutions to defense customers across 349 locations in 49 countries, offering...
V2X, Inc. provides critical mission solutions to defense customers across 349 locations in 49 countries, offering readiness, logistics, training, communications, and platform maintenance services. The company generated $4.48 billion in 2025 revenue primarily from U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and civilian government customers, serving as prime contractor on 95% of its revenue under cost-plus, firm-fixed-price, and time-and-materials contracts.