Sturm Ruger is under a detected tender offer with the price above the $36.55 analyst target, so the deal terms drive the stock; underlying fundamentals show strong cash conversion and revenue growth but a poor earnings record.
Thesis pillars
- Tender Offer Deal Driven Price↓Deteriorating
- Price Above Analyst Target↑Improving
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.39 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, with a small castings/MIM segment also serving outside industrial customers.... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.39 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
About Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Sturm, Ruger's firearms segment generated $543.5 million of the company's roughly $546.1 million in total 2025 net sales, with rifles contributing $338.2 million, pistols $141.9 million, and revolvers $39.2 million; the castings and metal-injection-molding segment, which also supplies component parts for Ruger's own firearms, added about $2.6 million from outside customers. The company employed approximately 1,780 full-time workers across four U.S. manufacturing plants in New Hampshire, Arizona, North Carolina, and Kentucky as of February 2026.
Ruger sells almost exclusively through independent wholesale distributors - 13 for the domestic commercial market, 26 for law enforcement, and 44 for export - who resell to federally licensed retailers subject to point-of-sale background checks. Three distributors accounted for the bulk of 2025 firearms sales: Lipsey's at 27%, Sports South at 22%, and Davidson's at 18%, a pattern that has persisted across each of the past three fiscal years with the same three names rotating the top spots. Export sales, mostly to law enforcement agencies and foreign governments, represented about 5% of consolidated net sales in 2025. Manufacturing runs across the Newport, New Hampshire; Prescott, Arizona; Mayodan, North Carolina; and Hebron, Kentucky facilities, the last acquired in July 2025, with castings and metal-injection-molded parts produced in-house rather than sourced from outside vendors.
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Together, Lipsey's, Sports South, and Davidson's represented 67% of Ruger's 2025 firearms sales, up from 62% in 2024, concentrating distribution risk in three wholesale relationships even though end demand originates with individual retail buyers rather than the distributors. Ruger states that losing any single distributor would not likely cause a material long-term effect, though it could still weigh on the company's results for a particular period.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 4, 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026
- NEWS Beretta Holding S.A. Finalizes Cash Tender Offer for Ruger Shares — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Beretta Begins Cash Tender Offer To Purchase Up To 2,400,184 Sturm Ruger Shares At $44.80 Per Share — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS 12 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Moving In Wednesday's After-Market Session — benzinga Jul 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Sturm Ruger & Co Q2 Adj. EPS $0.52 Beats $0.46 Estimate, Sales $158.058M Beat $132.500M Estimate — benzinga Jul 29, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $46.39 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $43.14. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $36.55 reached (−21.2% from $46.39); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $43.14. Stop-loss: $43.14.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. trades at a P/E of 61.9 (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover RGR with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $43.
What does Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. do?Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily...
Sturm, Ruger & Company designs, manufactures, and sells firearms - rifles, pistols, shotguns, and revolvers - primarily to the U.S. commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors, with a small castings/MIM segment also serving outside industrial customers. Firearms sales reached $543.5 million in 2025, with three distributors - Lipsey's (27%), Sports South (22%), and Davidson's (18%) - together representing the majority of firearms sales, and export sales at about 5%.