Smith & Wesson pairs a perfect earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion with weakening near-term momentum and a dividend the engine flags as a yield trap.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Beat Streak Strong Growth→Stable
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- Failed Momentum Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jun 17, 2026
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. At $13.89, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. At $13.89, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Man Group plc Acquires New Shares in Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. $SWBI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS Smith & Wesson (SWBI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five commercial distributors46%10-K Item 1: 'Our top five commercial distributors in the United States accounted for a total of 46%, 45%, and 46% of our net sales for the fiscal years ended April 30, 2026, 2025, and 2024, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $13.89, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.93. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $14.66 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $12.93. Stop-loss: $12.93.
Thin upside margin: 5.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.7 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover SWBI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. do?Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns,...
Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the world's leading manufacturers of firearms, producing handguns, long guns, handcuffs, and suppressors under the Smith & Wesson and Gemtech brands at facilities in Maryville, Tennessee; Springfield, Massachusetts; and Houlton, Maine. The company sells primarily through two-step distribution to commercial distributors and retailers, with its top five U.S. commercial distributors accounting for 46% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and generated $114.2 million in cash from operations that year. Smith & Wesson also sells manufacturing services such as forging, machini