Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.11: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Ultragenyx is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on rare genetic diseases, with four approved therapies (Crysvita for XLH/TIO, Mepsevii for MPS VII, Dojolvi for LC-FAOD, Evkeeza for HoFH) and multiple Phase 3 pipeline programs. Revenue comes from product sales and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.11: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Raises Price Target to $96 — benzinga May 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wedbush Maintains Neutral on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Lowers Price Target to $26 — benzinga May 8, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Guggenheim Maintains Buy on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Lowers Price Target to $43 — benzinga May 8, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Raises Price Target to $47 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -90.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.11: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $23.34. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.85 (+86.7% upside). Prior stop was $23.34. Stop-loss: $23.34.
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-11.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 1.5%).
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 25.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover RARE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $52.
What does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. do?Ultragenyx is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on rare genetic diseases, with four approved therapies...
Ultragenyx is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on rare genetic diseases, with four approved therapies (Crysvita for XLH/TIO, Mepsevii for MPS VII, Dojolvi for LC-FAOD, Evkeeza for HoFH) and multiple Phase 3 pipeline programs. Revenue comes from product sales and collaboration payments from Kyowa Kirin (KKC) and Gilead; as of December 31, 2025, available cash was $737M. The company is implementing a 10% workforce reduction (~130 employees) and ~$50M in restructuring charges in H1 2026 following UX143 Phase 3 failures.