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Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak).

Innoviva is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with a royalty portfolio from GSK partnerships (RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA and ANORO ELLIPTA for COPD/asthma) plus an infectious disease commercial platform (GIAPREZA, XACDURO, XERAVA, ZEVTERA, NUZOLVENCE). Near-term revenues are... Read more

$22.84+34.6% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#8 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.23%
Stop $21.61Target $30.80(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.2:1
Analyst target$35.40+55.0%5 analysts
$30.80our TP
$22.84price
$35.40mean
$18
$46

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK
Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.7
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn119.9%
ROE50.7%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$18-23.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyGSK
    10-K Item 1A: 'currently, we derive the majority of our revenues from GSK and our near-term success depends in large part on GSK's ability to successfully develop and commercialize the products in the respiratory programs partnered with GSK.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 6.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.20Resistance $24.45

Price Targets

$22
$31
A.Upside+34.9%
A.R:R6.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 10x vs trail 4x (2.8x)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INVA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.80 (+34.9%), stop $21.61 (−5.7%), A.R:R 6.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.80 (+34.6% upside). Target $30.80 (+34.9%), stop $21.61 (−5.7%), A.R:R 6.2:1. Stop-loss: $21.61.

What are the risks of investing in INVA?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: GSK; Earnings expected to decline ~65% (cyclical peak).

Is INVA overvalued or undervalued?

Innoviva, Inc. trades at a P/E of 3.7 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about INVA?

11 analysts cover INVA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Innoviva, Inc. do?Innoviva is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with a royalty portfolio from GSK partnerships (RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA...

Innoviva is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with a royalty portfolio from GSK partnerships (RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTA and ANORO ELLIPTA for COPD/asthma) plus an infectious disease commercial platform (GIAPREZA, XACDURO, XERAVA, ZEVTERA, NUZOLVENCE). Near-term revenues are majority GSK royalties; IST commercial products are growing. Headquartered in Burlingame, CA.

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