Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is a rare disease biotech with analyst consensus implying 84.6% upside and a recovery-phase technical setup, but a cash burn rate of -33% of revenue, 3 consecutive earnings misses averaging -13.5% negative surprise, and a quality score of 2.4 out of 10 make the risk profile highly asymmetric with significant downside probability.
Thesis pillars
- Massive Analyst Upside Consensus↓Deteriorating
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Single Source Supplier Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.20: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with four approved products — Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), Dojolvi (LC-FAOD), and Evkeeza (HoFH) — sold in North America, Europe, and select international markets. Revenue is... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.20: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ultragenyx to Host Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Enters Settlement With Navinta Over Dojolvi — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ultragenyx Settles DOJOLVI Patent Litigation With Navinta, Allowing Generic Entry Starting January 1, 2033; Or July 2033 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Initiates Coverage On Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $16 — benzinga Oct 15, 2026
- NEWS Ultragenyx Announces $203M Deal To Sell Priority Review Voucher To Unnamed Buyer — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyKKC10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on KKC for the supply and commercialization of Crysvita in certain major markets'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'The failure to supply by any of our single-source suppliers could adversely affect our business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved Third Amended and Restated 2023 Incentive Plan at Ultragenyx May 14, 2026 Annual Meeting. No director departures or officer changes. Class I directors Emil Kakkis and Shehnaaz Suliman re-elected.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.20: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $16.00. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $23.63 (+37.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.00. Stop-loss: $16.00.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Negative free cash flow.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 76.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover RARE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $26.
What does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. do?Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with four approved products —...
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with four approved products — Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), Dojolvi (LC-FAOD), and Evkeeza (HoFH) — sold in North America, Europe, and select international markets. Revenue is generated from product sales and royalties, with $737 million in cash at year-end 2025; near-term pipeline includes DTX401 with PDUFA expected in Q3 2026.