Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 9.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality.
Ultragenyx is a biopharmaceutical company with approved therapies Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), and others for rare/ultra-rare genetic diseases. Revenue comes from product sales and collaborations, notably with Kyowa Kirin (KKC) for Crysvita global commercialization;... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 9.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierKKC10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on KKC for the supply and commercialization of Crysvita in certain major markets.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'The failure to supply by any of our single-source suppliers could adversely affect our business.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 2.05MEDIUMUltragenyx announced strategic restructuring: 10% workforce reduction (~130 employees) beginning Feb 12, 2026, substantially complete in H1 2026. Total charges ~$50M including ~$40M for termination of UX143 manufacturing agreements.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 9.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.04. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.02 (+93.9% upside). Prior stop was $23.04. Stop-loss: $23.04.
Concentration risk — Supplier: KKC; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -1939.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover RARE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $53.
What does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. do?Ultragenyx is a biopharmaceutical company with approved therapies Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), and others...
Ultragenyx is a biopharmaceutical company with approved therapies Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), and others for rare/ultra-rare genetic diseases. Revenue comes from product sales and collaborations, notably with Kyowa Kirin (KKC) for Crysvita global commercialization; available cash was $737M as of December 31, 2025.