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HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, IBuy Wait6.6·$32.24+4.30%
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Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $30.14. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $32.24. Engine's entry $30.14 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet.

Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy and expanding into rare epilepsy and neurobehavioral disorders. Net product revenue from WAKIX was $868.5 million in 2025; WAKIX represented 98% of total revenue. The company's core... Read more

$32.24+23.4% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#5 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.37%
Entry $30.14(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $28.27Target $38.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1Setup A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$44.36+37.6%11 analysts
$38.60our TP
$32.24price
$44.36mean
$85

Wait for pullback to $30.14. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $32.24. Engine's entry $30.14 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)5.5
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA6.1
Profit Mgn16.2%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta0.96
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$25-22.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductWAKIX98%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are substantially dependent on the commercial success of our only approved product, WAKIX.'
  • HIGHSupplierBioprojet
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on our license agreements with Bioprojet to provide rights to the core intellectual property relating to pitolisant, and any termination or loss of significant rights under the agreement would adversely affect our development and/or commercialization of pitolisant.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Sandip Kapadia, CFO, stepping down effective April 14, 2026 to pursue other career opportunities. Glenn Reicin appointed CFO effective same date. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Anastasiou appointed Senior EVP and COO effective April 2, 2026. In connection with appointment, Anastasiou resigned as Class III Board director, also effective April 2, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.9
52w Position
5.8
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.86Resistance $32.99

Price Targets

$28
$30
$39
A.Upside+19.7%
A.R:R1.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRMY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $30.14. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $32.24. Engine's entry $30.14 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.04, quality 7.8/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $38.60 (+19.7%), stop $28.27 (−14.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.9:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRMY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.60 (+23.4% upside). Target $38.60 (+19.7%), stop $28.27 (−14.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.9:1. Stop-loss: $28.27.

What are the risks of investing in HRMY?

Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is HRMY overvalued or undervalued?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 5.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HRMY?

17 analysts cover HRMY with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I do?Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy and expanding into rare...

Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy and expanding into rare epilepsy and neurobehavioral disorders. Net product revenue from WAKIX was $868.5 million in 2025; WAKIX represented 98% of total revenue. The company's core IP is exclusively licensed from Bioprojet under two license agreements.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) · AAPG (Ascentage Pharma Group Internat) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) · GLPG (Galapagos NV)
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