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ADMAADMA Biologics IncHold6.5·$8.27+0.67%
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ADMA Biologics Inc (ADMA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

Hold(was: Buy (Wait for Entry))VALUE-TRAP 1/5AI GATE: BLOCKED — 6 material risksModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.

ADMA Biologics manufactures and commercializes three FDA-approved plasma-derived specialty biologics — ASCENIV and BIVIGAM (IVIG products for primary immunodeficiency) and Nabi-HB (hepatitis B immune globulin) — produced at its Boca Raton, Florida plasma fractionation facility.... Read more

$8.27+93.1% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#8 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.07%
Entry $7.93(1 ATR pullback)Stop $7.37Target $15.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.6:1Setup A.R:R 13.1:1
Analyst target$17.60+112.8%5 analysts
$15.31our TP
$8.27price
$17.60mean
$21

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. News gate: 1 distinct critical events (6 MATERIAL_RISK articles) Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About ADMA Biologics Inc

About ADMA Biologics Inc

ASCENIV, BIVIGAM, and Nabi-HB — ADMA Biologics' three FDA-approved plasma-derived biologics — are its sole commercial products, with 2026 revenue targeted at more than $635 million from the Boca Raton, Florida fractionation facility. The FDA approved a yield enhancement process in April 2025, expected to increase ASCENIV and BIVIGAM production yields by approximately 20% from the same starting source plasma volume. The company operated 10 FDA-licensed plasma collection centers at December 31, 2025, with three earmarked for divestiture at an aggregate price of $12.0 million.

ADMA earns revenue from specialty biologic sales distributed through national specialty distributors to home healthcare infusion facilities, hospitals, and physician offices. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services issued a permanent J-code (J1554) for ASCENIV effective April 2021, enabling consistent reimbursement coding. ASCENIV targets patients with primary immunodeficiency disease — an estimated 150,000 to 250,000 diagnosed U.S. patients, roughly half treated with IVIG regularly — while BIVIGAM covers a broader PI population including pediatric patients two years and older following a December 2023 FDA label expansion. Plasma supply comes from ADMA BioCenters' collection network plus third-party supply agreements; the December 2025 divestiture of three collection centers included long-term plasma supply agreements with the buyer designed to sustain supply through the late 2030s. A portion of collected plasma not consumed in-house is sold to third-party customers in U.S. and international spot markets. Third-party contractors supplement in-house fill-finish capability at the Boca Facility.

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ADMA's commercial output flows through a single FDA-licensed plasma fractionation facility in Boca Raton, Florida; the 10-K states the company has no alternative manufacturing facility or contractual arrangements with other manufacturers in the event of a casualty to or destruction of any of its facilities. A natural disaster, fire, or FDA enforcement action — such as a warning letter following an inspection of the Boca Facility — could interrupt supply of all three commercial products simultaneously. Compounding this, historically a few customers have accounted for a significant amount of total revenue, meaning a supply disruption could simultaneously trigger customer retention risk.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From ADMA Biologics Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA203.2
Profit Mgn32.4%
ROE43.3%
Rev Growth15.9%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV100%elevated
Max Pain$35+323.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerfew customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Historically, a few customers have accounted for a significant amount of our total revenue and accounts receivable'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.9
Support Resistance
4.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 8.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.45Resistance $8.89

Price Targets

$7
$8
$15
A.Upside+85.1%
A.R:R8.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)13.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.3%
Max %2.6%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! News gate: 1 distinct critical events (6 MATERIAL_RISK articles)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADMA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. News gate: 1 distinct critical events (6 MATERIAL_RISK articles) Target $15.31 (+85.1%), stop $7.37 (−12.2%), A.R:R 8.6:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADMA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.31 (+93.1% upside). Target $15.31 (+85.1%), stop $7.37 (−12.2%), A.R:R 8.6:1. Stop-loss: $7.37.

What are the risks of investing in ADMA?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADMA overvalued or undervalued?

ADMA Biologics Inc trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADMA?

10 analysts cover ADMA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does ADMA Biologics Inc do?ADMA Biologics manufactures and commercializes three FDA-approved plasma-derived specialty biologics — ASCENIV and...

ADMA Biologics manufactures and commercializes three FDA-approved plasma-derived specialty biologics — ASCENIV and BIVIGAM (IVIG products for primary immunodeficiency) and Nabi-HB (hepatitis B immune globulin) — produced at its Boca Raton, Florida plasma fractionation facility. Revenue comes from specialty biologic sales through national distributors; the company targets more than $635 million in 2026 revenue and also sells excess source plasma to third parties.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · HALO (Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.) · AAPG (Ascentage Pharma Group Internat) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I)
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