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AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals IncBuy Wait7.0·$17.36
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals offers a rare combination of a four-quarter earnings beat streak, elite operating margins, and a below-market forward multiple, but the stock has nearly closed the gap to its near-term resistance target and free cash flow converts at less than half of reported net income — arguing for patience over immediate deployment.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Profitability Franchise→Stable
  • Consistent Earnings Outperformance↑Improving
  • Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $16.37. Price sits above the model's entry target of $16.37; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generating $271.3 million in 2025 net product sales. Revenue comes from direct U.S. commercialization through specialty pharmacies and a supply and royalty... Read more

$17.36-9.8% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#5 of 241 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.40%
Entry $16.37(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $15.43Analyst target $15.66(reached)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst consensus$18.00+3.7%7 analysts
$17.36price
$18.00mean
$16
$21

Wait for pullback to $16.37. Price sits above the model's entry target of $16.37; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-9.8% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc

About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc

LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the only FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generated $271.3 million in net product sales for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals in 2025 — a 25% increase from $216.2 million in 2024 — with operating cash flows of $135.7 million, up 206% year over year. Aurinia commercializes LUPKYNIS directly in the United States and supplies product to Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for Japan, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland under a collaboration agreement signed in December 2020. The company held $398.0 million in cash, equivalents, and investments at December 31, 2025, and repurchased 12.2 million shares for $98.2 million during the year.

Aurinia sells LUPKYNIS in the U.S. through two specialty pharmacies and a specialty distributor, with payer coverage from commercial plans and government programs including Medicaid and Medicare. Outside the U.S., Otsuka has obtained regulatory approval in Japan, the EU, the UK, and Switzerland; Aurinia earns royalties of 10% to 20% on Otsuka Territory net sales. Manufacturing is entirely outsourced: Lonza is the sole supplier of voclosporin drug substance at a dedicated Monoplant facility, Catalent Pharma Solutions is the sole supplier of voclosporin capsules, and a sole supplier handles blistering and packaging of U.S. commercial cartons. In the U.S., LUPKYNIS competes against BENLYSTA (belimumab, marketed by GSK plc) and GAZYVA (obinutuzumab, marketed by Genentech, Inc.), both injectable therapies, as well as off-label use of mycophenolate mofetil and corticosteroids. In February and March 2025, eight generic companies including Hikma, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, and Sandoz filed ANDAs challenging the 2037 dosing patents; Aurinia filed patent infringement complaints against each, triggering a Hatch-Waxman 30-month regulatory stay.

Show full overview

Three sole-source supply relationships expose Aurinia to manufacturing disruption risk with no short-term mitigation path. Lonza serves as the sole drug substance manufacturer at a dedicated Monoplant contracted through March 31, 2030, at a fixed quarterly facility fee of 3.6 million Swiss Francs for exclusive use rights — a cost that continues regardless of production volume. Catalent Pharma Solutions is the sole encapsulator and an unnamed third supplier handles all blistering and packaging of U.S. commercial cartons. The 10-K notes that the long-term commercial success of LUPKYNIS depends in part on the ability of contract manufacturers to supply cGMP-compliant product without interruption, and that an interruption from any sole-source supplier could adversely affect LUPKYNIS commercial sales.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn100.8%
ROE66.1%
Rev Growth18.9%
Beta1.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV87%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
1.0
Gap
6.0
52w Position
8.0
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Speculative
RSI
68 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.47Resistance $17.41

Price Targets

A.Upside-9.8%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.6%
Max %3.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUPH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $16.37. Price sits above the model's entry target of $16.37; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-9.8% upside). Wait for pullback. Analyst target $15.66 reached (−9.8%), stop $15.43 (−12.5%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

What is the AUPH stock price target?

Analyst target $15.66 reached (−9.8% from $17.36); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $15.66 reached (−9.8%), stop $15.43 (−12.5%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $15.43.

What are the risks of investing in AUPH?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AUPH overvalued or undervalued?

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AUPH?

13 analysts cover AUPH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc do?Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis,...

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals markets LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for adult lupus nephritis, generating $271.3 million in 2025 net product sales. Revenue comes from direct U.S. commercialization through specialty pharmacies and a supply and royalty arrangement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical for Japan, EU, UK, and Switzerland markets. Manufacturing relies entirely on sole-source contractors: Lonza for drug substance and Catalent for encapsulation.

Related stocks: CRMD (CorMedix Inc.) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) · ASND (Ascendis Pharma A/S) · PHAT (Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
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