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OSWOneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedSell5.2·$21.74-0.82%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

OneSpaWorld is in a strong technical position with 7.8 momentum and consistent growth, but the stock has exhausted its near-term upside with negative 0.2% implied return at current levels and an inverted risk-reward, making it a hold rather than a new-buy situation.

Thesis pillars

  • Piotroski Quality EarningsStable
  • Strong Momentum Above All MasStable
  • Growth Profile PegStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

OneSpaWorld operates health and wellness centers aboard 206 cruise ships and at 48 destination resort locations, with an estimated market share exceeding 90% in outsourced maritime health and wellness. The company generated $961.0 million in revenues for the year ended December... Read more

$21.74+24.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#11 of 14 Leisure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.22%
IncomeYield0.91%Payout24.05%sustainable
Stop $20.57Target $27.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$31.20+43.5%5 analysts
$27.14our TP
$21.74price
$31.20mean
$36

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 25%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.5
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA18.3
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE14.3%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.90
Dividend0.91%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV87%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.8
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
14 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.21Resistance $27.17

Price Targets

$21
$27
A.Upside+24.9%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $20.57. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the OSW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.14 (+24.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.57. Stop-loss: $20.57.

What are the risks of investing in OSW?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is OSW overvalued or undervalued?

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 27.5 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OSW?

10 analysts cover OSW with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $31.

What does OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited do?OneSpaWorld operates health and wellness centers aboard 206 cruise ships and at 48 destination resort locations, with...

OneSpaWorld operates health and wellness centers aboard 206 cruise ships and at 48 destination resort locations, with an estimated market share exceeding 90% in outsourced maritime health and wellness. The company generated $961.0 million in revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025 under long-term exclusive agreements with cruise line partners; approximately 19% of revenues came from retail product sales. Cruise line partners fund center build-out and maintenance, yielding an asset-light model with an effective cash tax rate of approximately 6%.

Related stocks: AS (Amer Sports, Inc.) · YETI (YETI Holdings, Inc.) · HAS (Hasbro, Inc.) · LTH (Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.) · PTON (Peloton Interactive, Inc.)
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