Peloton Interactive shows a remarkable free cash flow conversion of 1,000% relative to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, suggesting the business has turned a corner operationally, but a confirmed death cross, 16% short interest, and an extreme put/call ratio of 3.60 make the near-term risk profile severe.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Free Cash Flow Turnaround→Stable
- Death Cross Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 6, 2026
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Peloton sells connected fitness equipment (bikes, treadmills, rowers, Precor commercial gear) and monthly Memberships to instructor-led workout classes, serving about 5.5 million Members in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Australia and Austria as of June 30, 2026, plus... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Peloton counted approximately 5.5 million Members as of June 30, 2026 across the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Australia and Austria, along with Commercial Business Unit customers in over 60 countries. The New York-based company, founded in 2012, sells Connected Fitness Products through its websites, retail stores, third-party retailers such as Amazon and Dick's Sporting Goods, and a business-to-business unit built around Precor, and it employed 1,736 people in the U.S. and 526 internationally.
Revenue comes from two engines: hardware and subscriptions. In October 2025 the company launched the Cross Training Series and the commercial-ready Pro Series, kept selling refurbished Original Bike and Bike+, and discontinued the Original Tread, Tread+ and Row as well as Peloton Guide. Members pay monthly or annual fees for All-Access Memberships tied to connected equipment or for app-only plans including App+, App One, Strength+ and Breathwrk, with a Rental Membership bundling an Original Bike+ at one monthly price. Content is produced at studios in New York City and London in English, German and Spanish, and the company added AI-driven Peloton IQ features in fiscal 2026. The Commercial Business Unit sells Precor cardio, strength and wellness equipment to clubs, hotels, residential buildings, corporate, education and government buyers. Revenue and marketing spend have historically peaked in the second fiscal quarter.
Show full overview
Supply and licensing dependence is the sharpest lens. The 10-K says Peloton relies on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers and logistics partners for Connected Fitness Products, derives a substantial portion of revenue from those products, and depends on third-party licenses for the music in its classes. Changes in trade policy, including tariffs, have had and may continue to have an adverse effect on results. If a key manufacturer failed to deliver or a music license were lost or disputed, product availability and class content might be disrupted at the same time, and the company also notes it has incurred operating losses and may not maintain profitability.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
From Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 13, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer Saqib Baig will step down to pursue an external opportunity, serving until November 27, 2026; a search has started. No disagreement over accounting or disclosure cited and no severance payable.
Latest news
- NEWS Kanen Wealth Management LLC Takes $7.56 Million Position in Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) CFO Saqib Baig Sells 15,000 Shares - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) interim CFO sells shares under 10b5-1 plan - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Technology Crossover Management IX Ltd. Invests $21.73 Billion in Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Peloton (PTON) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductConnected Fitness Products revenue10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a substantial portion of our revenue from sales of our Connected Fitness Products.'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners for our Connected Fitness Products.'
- MEDIUMSupplierthird-party music licenses10-K Item 1A: 'We depend upon third-party licenses for the use of music in our content.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-13Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer Saqib Baig will step down to pursue an external opportunity, serving until November 27, 2026; a search has started. No disagreement over accounting or disclosure cited and no severance payable.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.27 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $4.90. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $7.05 (+33.8% upside). Prior stop was $4.90. Stop-loss: $4.90.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Elevated risk factors.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.6 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PTON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Peloton Interactive, Inc. do?Peloton sells connected fitness equipment (bikes, treadmills, rowers, Precor commercial gear) and monthly Memberships...
Peloton sells connected fitness equipment (bikes, treadmills, rowers, Precor commercial gear) and monthly Memberships to instructor-led workout classes, serving about 5.5 million Members in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Australia and Austria as of June 30, 2026, plus commercial customers in over 60 countries. Revenue comes from hardware, Paid Connected Fitness and App Subscriptions, and a Commercial Business Unit. Hardware relies on a limited number of suppliers and contract manufacturers.