NMI Holdings combines a maximum Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, 54% net margins, and a wide economic moat in specialty mortgage insurance with an attractive forward P/E of 6.9x, though a death-cross technical pattern and slim current risk-reward margin call for patience before entry.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Business Quality→Stable
- Attractive Forward Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Consistent Earnings Delivery→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Wait for pullback to $40.74. BUY gates pass at $43.49, but concentration risk — Regulatory: Wisconsin OCI and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $40.74 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC, domiciled in Wisconsin under Wisconsin OCI regulation and approved to write coverage in all 50 states. At December 31, 2025, NMIC had $221.4 billion of primary insurance in force and 2,193 lender customers, with no... Read more
Wait for pullback to $40.74. BUY gates pass at $43.49, but concentration risk — Regulatory: Wisconsin OCI and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $40.74 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About NMI Holdings Inc
About NMI Holdings Inc
NMI Holdings' primary insurance subsidiary NMIC wrote $48.9 billion of new insurance in 2025, bringing primary insurance in force to $221.4 billion and primary risk in force to $59.3 billion at December 31, 2025. The company had issued master policies with 2,193 customers as of year-end, including national banks, regional mortgage banks, credit unions, and internet-sourced lenders, with no single customer exceeding 10% of consolidated revenues. NMIC and Re One are domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance.
NMIH earns premium income as a percentage of insured loan principal balances — set at policy inception and generally unchangeable over the policy life. Premiums are paid by borrowers (BPMI) or lenders (LPMI) under four plans: single, annual, monthly, and Monthly Advantage. The company's proprietary Rate GPS platform prices policies using LTV ratios, FICO scores, DTI, and property attributes. Underwriting runs on two tracks: non-delegated (NMIH underwrites each loan) and delegated (approved lenders bind coverage under pre-set guidelines). GSE charters prohibit purchase of high-LTV loans without credit enhancement, making the GSEs the principal beneficiaries of NMIC's coverage and the structural demand driver for the private MI market. The private MI market has six active participants, including Arch Capital, Essent Group, Enact Holdings, MGIC Investment Corporation, and Radian Group. Government MIs (FHA, USDA, VA) accounted for 62% of high-LTV origination volume in 2025 versus 38% for private MI. NMIC's PMIERs sufficiency ratio exceeded required assets by 70% at December 31, 2025.
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NMIH's revenue could be significantly reduced if the GSEs modify or discontinue their demand for private mortgage insurance. The 10-K identifies as a primary risk changes in GSE business practices — including restructuring, changes in loan delivery pricing, or expansion of alternative credit risk transfer programs such as the suspended IMAGIN and EPMI programs. The FHFA's expanded risk transfer programs, including off-shore reinsurance and credit-linked note transactions, represent potential substitutes that may reduce the private MI market opportunity. Separately, Wisconsin OCI approval processes for premium rates limit the company's ability to adjust rates on in-force policies if claims experience worsens.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From NMI Holdings Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — NMI Holdings Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Q2 2026 -- GF Value S - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: NMI Holdings (NMIH) Reports Q1 Results Tomorrow - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Q1 2026 Earnings Report Preview: What To Expect - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-07-31T03:58:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHregulatoryWisconsin OCI10-K Item 1: 'NMIC and Re One are domiciled in Wisconsin and principally regulated by the Wisconsin OCI'
- MEDIUMCustomerGSEs10-K Item 1: 'the private MI industry in the U.S. is driven in large part by the GSEs' demand for high-LTV loans'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $40.74. BUY gates pass at $43.49, but concentration risk — Regulatory: Wisconsin OCI and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $40.74 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $43.85 (+0.8%), stop $39.00 (−11.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.85 (-5.9% upside). Target $43.85 (+0.8%), stop $39.00 (−11.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $39.00.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Wisconsin OCI; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away).
NMI Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 8.9 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
14 analysts cover NMIH with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $47.
What does NMI Holdings Inc do?NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC, domiciled in Wisconsin under Wisconsin OCI regulation...
NMI Holdings provides private mortgage insurance through NMIC, domiciled in Wisconsin under Wisconsin OCI regulation and approved to write coverage in all 50 states. At December 31, 2025, NMIC had $221.4 billion of primary insurance in force and 2,193 lender customers, with no single customer accounting for more than 10% of consolidated revenues.