Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.69
- ▸Attractively valued
NMIH · Why this verdict
Why NMI Holdings (NMIH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 54%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 50 (pass)
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:POOR_ASYMMETRY|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (9)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Financial Services:3/10
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.0>=7.5+momentum=6.0>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
1.22
Upside
+7.4%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.2<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.22.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Quality at 8.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Technical at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.22 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.