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NFGNational Fuel Gas CompanyBuy Wait6.3·$77.03-0.67%
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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Wait for pullback to $76.53. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.03. Engine's entry $76.53 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company with integrated natural gas production (Marcellus/Utica), interstate pipeline and storage, and regulated utility serving ~756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Revenues are split across... Read more

$77.03+12.9% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.38%
IncomeYield2.76%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout28.92%sustainable
Entry $76.53(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $73.59Target $86.27(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.4:1Setup A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$101.50+31.8%2 analysts
$86.27our TP
$77.03price
$101.50mean
$110

Wait for pullback to $76.53. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.03. Engine's entry $76.53 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.5
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE20.8%
Rev Growth17.6%
Beta0.39
Dividend2.76%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomersingle Integrated Upstream customer11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from one customer of the Company’s Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment...represented approximately $258 million, or 11.3%, of the Company’s consolidated revenue'
  • HIGHSupplierDTE Energy Trading33%
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%), Emera Energy Services, Inc. (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%)...accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment’s 2025 gas purchases.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierEmera Energy Services11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%), Emera Energy Services, Inc. (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%)...accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment’s 2025 gas purchases.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierChevron Natural Gas10%
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%), Emera Energy Services, Inc. (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%)...accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment’s 2025 gas purchases.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $75.67Resistance $85.20

Price Targets

$74
$77
$86
A.Upside+12.0%
A.R:R2.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.9%
Max %1.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $76.53. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.03. Engine's entry $76.53 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $86.27 (+12.0%), stop $73.59 (−4.7%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.27 (+12.9% upside). Target $86.27 (+12.0%), stop $73.59 (−4.7%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $73.59.

What are the risks of investing in NFG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NFG overvalued or undervalued?

National Fuel Gas Company trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NFG?

8 analysts cover NFG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $102.

What does National Fuel Gas Company do?National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company with integrated natural gas production (Marcellus/Utica),...

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company with integrated natural gas production (Marcellus/Utica), interstate pipeline and storage, and regulated utility serving ~756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Revenues are split across three segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering ($324.7M net income), Pipeline and Storage ($121M), and Utility ($83.2M) in fiscal 2025. The Pipeline and Storage segment generated approximately 35% of revenues from affiliated segments.

Related stocks: DEC (Diversified Energy Company) · TGS (Transportadora de Gas del Sur S) · YPF (YPF Sociedad Anonima) · SU (Suncor Energy Inc.) · CVE (Cenovus Energy Inc)
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