Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.05
- ▸Attractively valued
NFG · Why this verdict
Why National Fuel Gas (NFG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.9 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -4% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 3.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $65
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 276.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.29
Upside
+11.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 2.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Technical at 7.3, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Catalyst at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.