Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.12
- ▸Attractively valued
NFG · Why this verdict
Why National Fuel Gas (NFG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
National Fuel Gas is a wide-moat integrated energy utility with best-in-class 27% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8, and 13% upside to analyst targets, though a confirmed death cross pattern and negative free-cash-flow quality are near-term headwinds that must resolve before the bullish case can be acted on.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
National Fuel Gas holds a wide economic moat, generates 27% operating margins, and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-in-class quality operators in the integrated energy peer group. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 22% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is negative relative to net income at -4%, indicating that reported earnings overstate actual cash generation, which limits reinvestment and distribution capacity. | ||
National Fuel Gas beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with solid positive surprises, and analysts see 32% upside to the current consensus price target, reflecting a favorable earnings outlook. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats or meets consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters and analyst price target remains above $90. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a miss of -4.46%, suggesting that earnings predictability has weakened and the beat streak may not continue. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at -1.1% per 30 days, confirming a deteriorating price trend that historically precedes further near-term weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, signaling trend reversal. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterMACD has turned bullish and the stock sits near technical support with 12% upside to analyst targets, which may attract buyers before the death cross fully resolves. | ||
With a forward P/E of 9.7x and PEG of 1.04, National Fuel Gas offers a reasonable entry price for a wide-moat integrated utility, with an asymmetry ratio of 2.46 suggesting that upside potential outweighs near-term downside. Valuation breakdown | The stock price rises above $86 analyst target within 12 months as the technical downtrend resolves and earnings trajectory holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG above 1.0 for a utility company with declining free cash flow conversion may signal the valuation is not as compelling as headline P/E suggests. | ||
National Fuel Gas holds a wide economic moat, generates 27% operating margins, and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-in-class quality operators in the integrated energy peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 22% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is negative relative to net income at -4%, indicating that reported earnings overstate actual cash generation, which limits reinvestment and distribution capacity.
National Fuel Gas beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with solid positive surprises, and analysts see 32% upside to the current consensus price target, reflecting a favorable earnings outlook.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats or meets consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters and analyst price target remains above $90.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a miss of -4.46%, suggesting that earnings predictability has weakened and the beat streak may not continue.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at -1.1% per 30 days, confirming a deteriorating price trend that historically precedes further near-term weakness.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, signaling trend reversal.
CounterMACD has turned bullish and the stock sits near technical support with 12% upside to analyst targets, which may attract buyers before the death cross fully resolves.
With a forward P/E of 9.7x and PEG of 1.04, National Fuel Gas offers a reasonable entry price for a wide-moat integrated utility, with an asymmetry ratio of 2.46 suggesting that upside potential outweighs near-term downside.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $86 analyst target within 12 months as the technical downtrend resolves and earnings trajectory holds.
CounterA PEG above 1.0 for a utility company with declining free cash flow conversion may signal the valuation is not as compelling as headline P/E suggests.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.9 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -4% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.64
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:97d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.27
Upside
+1.5%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Growth at 5.4, and Catalyst at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Margins Quality
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 18% for 2 consecutive quarters or Piotroski F-Score falls below 6.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in 2 or more of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Death Cross Technical BlockTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $73.63 stop-loss level or the 200-day moving average slope remains negative beyond 9 months.
- P4Attractive Valuation Entry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $80 or forward P/E rises above 14x without earnings growth above 10%.