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NEMNewmont CorporationBuy Wait6.9·$105.26+5.02%
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Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $104.59. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $105.26. Engine's entry $104.59 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%).

Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with mining operations across the United States, Australia, Ghana, Peru, Papua New Guinea and seven other countries, also producing copper, silver, lead, and zinc as co-products. The company sells refined gold and metal... Read more

$105.26+24.9% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#11 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield9.16%
IncomeYield1.04%(5y avg 3.15%)Payout13.10%sustainable
Entry $104.59(Gap Fill 50 Sticky)Stop $94.76Target $127.31(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1Setup A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$141.46+34.4%21 analysts
$127.31our TP
$105.26price
$141.46mean
$72
$175

Wait for pullback to $104.59. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $105.26. Engine's entry $104.59 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.53)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.0
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$107.0B
EV/EBITDA6.4
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE25.8%
Rev Growth45.8%
Beta0.46
Dividend1.04%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.99neutral
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditygold85%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, 85%, 85% and 89%, respectively, of our Sales were attributable to gold.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Francois Hardy, EVP and Chief Technical Officer, notified Newmont on April 24, 2026 of his decision to retire effective June 30, 2026 after ~24 years; not due to any disagreement. Erin Workman named acting CTO effective May 2026; structured successor search underway.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
4.6
Quality Rank
6.2
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Conservative
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.02Resistance $111.93

Price Targets

$95
$105
$127
A.Upside+20.9%
A.R:R1.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $104.59. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $105.26. Engine's entry $104.59 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $127.31 (+20.9%), stop $94.76 (−11.1%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.31 (+24.9% upside). Target $127.31 (+20.9%), stop $94.76 (−11.1%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $94.76.

What are the risks of investing in NEM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%).

Is NEM overvalued or undervalued?

Newmont Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NEM?

30 analysts cover NEM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $141.

What does Newmont Corporation do?Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with mining operations across the United States, Australia, Ghana,...

Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with mining operations across the United States, Australia, Ghana, Peru, Papua New Guinea and seven other countries, also producing copper, silver, lead, and zinc as co-products. The company sells refined gold and metal concentrate, with gold accounting for 85% of sales in 2025, and held 118.2 million attributable ounces of proven and probable gold reserves at year-end 2025. As the largest gold producer at roughly 5% of worldwide mined output, its competitive position rests on the size and grade of its ore bodies in favorable mining jurisdiction

Related stocks: GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals Corp)
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