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NEMNewmont CorporationBuy Wait6.7·$100.28+2.76%
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Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $104.59 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Negative momentum.

Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with mining operations across the United States, Australia, Ghana, Peru, Papua New Guinea and seven other countries, also producing copper, silver, lead, and zinc as co-products. The company sells refined gold and metal... Read more

$100.28+33.7% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#15 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield9.41%
IncomeYield1.07%(5y avg 3.15%)Payout13.10%sustainable
Entry $104.59(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $95.27Target $127.74(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$141.93+41.5%21 analysts
$127.74our TP
$100.28price
$141.93mean
$72
$175

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $104.59 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$104.2B
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE25.8%
Rev Growth45.8%
Beta0.46
Dividend1.07%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.63bearish
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditygold85%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, 85%, 85% and 89%, respectively, of our Sales were attributable to gold.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Francois Hardy, EVP and Chief Technical Officer, notified Newmont on April 24, 2026 of his decision to retire effective June 30, 2026 after ~24 years; not due to any disagreement. Erin Workman named acting CTO effective May 2026; structured successor search underway.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.9
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
6.2
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.02Resistance $111.97

Price Targets

$95
$105
$128
A.Upside+27.4%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEM stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $104.59 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $127.74 (+27.4%), stop $95.27 (−5.3%), Setup A.R:R 5.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.74 (+33.7% upside). Target $127.74 (+27.4%), stop $95.27 (−5.3%), Setup A.R:R 5.1:1. Stop-loss: $95.27.

What are the risks of investing in NEM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Negative momentum.

Is NEM overvalued or undervalued?

Newmont Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NEM?

30 analysts cover NEM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $142.

What does Newmont Corporation do?Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with mining operations across the United States, Australia, Ghana,...

Newmont Corporation is primarily a gold producer with mining operations across the United States, Australia, Ghana, Peru, Papua New Guinea and seven other countries, also producing copper, silver, lead, and zinc as co-products. The company sells refined gold and metal concentrate, with gold accounting for 85% of sales in 2025, and held 118.2 million attributable ounces of proven and probable gold reserves at year-end 2025. As the largest gold producer at roughly 5% of worldwide mined output, its competitive position rests on the size and grade of its ore bodies in favorable mining jurisdiction

Related stocks: AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals Corp)
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