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Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $38.08. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $39.76. Engine's entry $38.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

$39.76+35.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#5 of 32 Gold
Entry $38.08(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $34.35Target $51.42(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1Setup A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$60.50+52.2%4 analysts
$51.42our TP
$39.76price
$60.50mean
$63

Wait for pullback to $38.08. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $39.76. Engine's entry $38.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.01, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$16.8B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn51.2%
ROE25.9%
Rev Growth79.2%
Beta1.35
Dividend0.29%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.40Resistance $50.40

Price Targets

$34
$38
$51
A.Upside+29.3%
A.R:R3.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $38.08. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $39.76. Engine's entry $38.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.01, quality 7.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $51.42 (+29.3%), stop $34.35 (−15.7%), Setup A.R:R 5.1:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.42 (+35.6% upside). Target $51.42 (+29.3%), stop $34.35 (−15.7%), Setup A.R:R 5.1:1. Stop-loss: $34.35.

What are the risks of investing in AGI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is AGI overvalued or undervalued?

Alamos Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AGI?

15 analysts cover AGI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Alamos Gold Inc. do?Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company...

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

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