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NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Buy Wait6.8·$158.35-0.89%
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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Wait for pullback to $148.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $158.35. Engine's entry $148.02 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Thin upside margin: 9.6%.

Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage neuroscience biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea (INGREZZA) and classic CAH (CRENESSITY), plus a diversified mid-to-late stage pipeline. INGREZZA generated $2.51B in 2025 net product... Read more

$158.35+11.9% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#2 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.68%
Entry $148.02(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $137.85Target $173.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1Setup A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$192.88+21.8%29 analysts
$173.60our TP
$158.35price
$192.88mean
$144
$251

Wait for pullback to $148.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $158.35. Engine's entry $148.02 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Thin upside margin: 9.6%. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.45, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.60)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA
Thin upside margin: 9.6%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.6
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$16.1B
EV/EBITDA18.4
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth42.2%
Beta0.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$100-36.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductINGREZZA
    10-K Item 1: 'INGREZZA net product sales were $2.51 billion for 2025 ... and accounted for a significant portion of our total net product sales during each of these years.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $152.54Resistance $169.57

Price Targets

$138
$148
$174
A.Upside+9.6%
A.R:R1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBIX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $148.02. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $158.35. Engine's entry $148.02 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Thin upside margin: 9.6%. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.45, quality 8.7/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $173.60 (+9.6%), stop $137.85 (−14.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NBIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $173.60 (+11.9% upside). Target $173.60 (+9.6%), stop $137.85 (−14.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $137.85.

What are the risks of investing in NBIX?

Concentration risk — Product: INGREZZA; Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Negative momentum.

Is NBIX overvalued or undervalued?

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NBIX?

36 analysts cover NBIX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $193.

What does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. do?Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage neuroscience biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia...

Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage neuroscience biopharma with FDA-approved treatments for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea (INGREZZA) and classic CAH (CRENESSITY), plus a diversified mid-to-late stage pipeline. INGREZZA generated $2.51B in 2025 net product sales, representing a significant portion of total revenues; CRENESSITY contributed $301.2M in its first full launch year.

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