Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.52
NBIX · Why this verdict
Why Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Neurocrine Biosciences combines a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, and 42% revenue growth at a PEG of 0.45 and forward P/E of 12.5x — making it one of the higher-conviction quality-growth combinations in the specialty pharmaceutical sector — though heavy revenue concentration in a single product line and current negative price momentum create real near-term risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 42% year-over-year while the stock trades at a PEG of 0.45 and forward P/E of 12.5x, implying the market is pricing in a significant slowdown that the recent growth rate does not yet support. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 25% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, and the PEG remains below 0.80. | →Stable |
| CounterSpecialty pharmaceutical revenue growth is inherently lumpy and often concentrated in the early years of a product lifecycle; the market may be correctly anticipating a deceleration in INGREZZA prescriptions as penetration matures. | ||
Neurocrine Biosciences scores 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, carries a wide economic moat rating, and delivers a combination of strong returns and growth that qualifies it as a compounder-quality business — characteristics that historically support long-duration holding periods. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 8.0 and the Piotroski F-Score holds at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-product revenue concentration in INGREZZA means a competitive entry, label restriction, or patent challenge could rapidly erode the moat that underlies the high quality score. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.7%, including a 14.4% beat in the most recent quarter, suggesting disciplined earnings guidance and operational execution. Earnings | Earnings per share beats the consensus estimate in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe single quarterly miss of -18.1% was significant in absolute terms, suggesting single-quarter results can be volatile enough to damage sentiment even within a broader beat trend. | ||
Revenue concentration in a single product — INGREZZA — creates a binary risk profile where any adverse regulatory, competitive, or clinical development could materially impair the entire revenue base. Bear case | Pipeline diversification leads to at least 1 additional approved product generating more than 10% of total revenue within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep concentration in a single successful product often reflects disciplined capital allocation rather than strategic failure, and INGREZZA's neurology positioning may have a long remaining runway. | ||
Revenue is growing at 42% year-over-year while the stock trades at a PEG of 0.45 and forward P/E of 12.5x, implying the market is pricing in a significant slowdown that the recent growth rate does not yet support.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 25% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, and the PEG remains below 0.80.
CounterSpecialty pharmaceutical revenue growth is inherently lumpy and often concentrated in the early years of a product lifecycle; the market may be correctly anticipating a deceleration in INGREZZA prescriptions as penetration matures.
Neurocrine Biosciences scores 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, carries a wide economic moat rating, and delivers a combination of strong returns and growth that qualifies it as a compounder-quality business — characteristics that historically support long-duration holding periods.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 8.0 and the Piotroski F-Score holds at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterA single-product revenue concentration in INGREZZA means a competitive entry, label restriction, or patent challenge could rapidly erode the moat that underlies the high quality score.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.7%, including a 14.4% beat in the most recent quarter, suggesting disciplined earnings guidance and operational execution.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats the consensus estimate in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
CounterThe single quarterly miss of -18.1% was significant in absolute terms, suggesting single-quarter results can be volatile enough to damage sentiment even within a broader beat trend.
Revenue concentration in a single product — INGREZZA — creates a binary risk profile where any adverse regulatory, competitive, or clinical development could materially impair the entire revenue base.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Pipeline diversification leads to at least 1 additional approved product generating more than 10% of total revenue within 12 months.
CounterDeep concentration in a single successful product often reflects disciplined capital allocation rather than strategic failure, and INGREZZA's neurology positioning may have a long remaining runway.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 7.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $60,520,070 (0.333% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $180.79 has reached target $181.96. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.08
Upside
+0.6%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $180.79 has reached target $181.96. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Catalyst at 5.1, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality Compounder
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 or quality score drops below 7.0.
- P2Revenue Growth At Value Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 15% in 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Single Product Concentration Risk
Trip ifAny single product accounts for more than 90% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters without pipeline progress reducing the dependency.