Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.46
NBIX · Why this verdict
Why Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 7.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $50,987,389 (0.309% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $145
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.7x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP->V9:POOR_ASYMMETRY|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Healthcare:1/10
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.68
Upside
+5.9%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.7 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.68 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.7, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.5, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.68 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.