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NATLNCR Atleos CorporationSell5.7·$44.34+0.16%
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NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%).

NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the Allpoint surcharge-free network, ATM-as-a-Service, and managed services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network, and T&T. Revenue is earned through... Read more

$44.34+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#47 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield15.08%
Stop $43.37Target $44.68(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$50.27+13.4%3 analysts
$44.68our TP
$44.34price
$50.27mean
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — NCR Atleos Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 7.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.8
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE50.7%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV93%elevated
Max Pain$25-43.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational (outside United States)55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, the percentage of our revenue from outside of the United States was 55%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Erm
1.0
Surprise Avg
2.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings History
6.7
Estimates down -34.4% (30d)Strong earnings: 3B/1M
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.77Resistance $45.59

Price Targets

$43
$45
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NATL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.37. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NATL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.68 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $43.37. Stop-loss: $43.37.

What are the risks of investing in NATL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (55.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 7.4): -1.5.

Is NATL overvalued or undervalued?

NCR Atleos Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NATL?

9 analysts cover NATL with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NCR Atleos Corporation do?NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the...

NCR Atleos is a financial technology company providing ATM and self-directed banking solutions globally, including the Allpoint surcharge-free network, ATM-as-a-Service, and managed services across three segments: Self-Service Banking, Network, and T&T. Revenue is earned through per-transaction fees, recurring subscription contracts, and managed service arrangements; 55% of 2025 revenue came from outside the United States.

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