Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $587.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%).
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores (Murphy USA, Murphy Express, QuickChek) across 27 U.S. states, primarily adjacent to Walmart stores. Revenue comes from motor fuel sales (4.8B gallons in 2025) and merchandise; 78% of merchandise is sourced from a... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $587.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Murphy USA Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance Singapore — Yahoo Finance Singapore positive
- NEWS MURPHY USA ($MUSA) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Q1 2025 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierCore-Mark78%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, over 78% of our merchandise, including most nicotine products and grocery items, was purchased from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOWDonald R. Smith Jr. appointed SVP, CFO and Treasurer effective April 3, 2026, converting from Interim CFO (since Oct 2025). Salary set at $550K. No successor needed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $587.27 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $546.19. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $623.32 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $546.19. Stop-loss: $546.19.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark (78.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5.
Murphy USA Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover MUSA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $567.
What does Murphy USA Inc. do?Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores (Murphy USA, Murphy Express, QuickChek) across 27 U.S....
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores (Murphy USA, Murphy Express, QuickChek) across 27 U.S. states, primarily adjacent to Walmart stores. Revenue comes from motor fuel sales (4.8B gallons in 2025) and merchandise; 78% of merchandise is sourced from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.