Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
MUSA · Why this verdict
Why Murphy USA (MUSA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Murphy USA's return on equity of 80% is exceptional among specialty retail peers, reflecting a capital-light model that generates strong shareholder returns relative to the asset base. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 50% over the next 12 months as the company sustains its current capital allocation discipline. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high return on equity is partly driven by elevated financial leverage (debt-to-equity of 4.1), meaning that debt repayment or margin compression could cause a rapid decline in this metric. | ||
Murphy USA is in a golden cross setup with the stock above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 65, indicating broad-based buying pressure across multiple time frames. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains above-200-day moving average positioning for at least 6 of the next 9 months as momentum sustains the breakout. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBreakout setups in specialty retail are fragile; a single negative earnings surprise or macro headwind to consumer discretionary spending could quickly reverse the technical picture. | ||
A single distributor (Core-Mark) supplies the majority of Murphy USA's merchandise, meaning a supply disruption, contract renegotiation, or distribution failure could materially impair store-level operations. Bear case | Murphy USA reduces its dependence on Core-Mark so that no single distributor accounts for more than 60% of merchandise supply within 18 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLong-term supply agreements with Core-Mark provide cost predictability and operational consistency, and the relationship may be deeply embedded enough that supply disruption risk is low in practice. | ||
At $586.83, Murphy USA trades 16% above the analyst price target, yielding a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.1 — meaning meaningful downside risk without a corresponding upside catalyst visible in the data. V9 | The stock price falls below $530 (declines more than 9% from current levels), restoring a favorable reward-to-risk profile. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may be underestimating Murphy USA's earnings power if fuel margins and merchandise same-store sales outperform, potentially leading to target upgrades that close the gap. | ||
Murphy USA's return on equity of 80% is exceptional among specialty retail peers, reflecting a capital-light model that generates strong shareholder returns relative to the asset base.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 50% over the next 12 months as the company sustains its current capital allocation discipline.
CounterExtremely high return on equity is partly driven by elevated financial leverage (debt-to-equity of 4.1), meaning that debt repayment or margin compression could cause a rapid decline in this metric.
Murphy USA is in a golden cross setup with the stock above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and an RSI of 65, indicating broad-based buying pressure across multiple time frames.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains above-200-day moving average positioning for at least 6 of the next 9 months as momentum sustains the breakout.
CounterBreakout setups in specialty retail are fragile; a single negative earnings surprise or macro headwind to consumer discretionary spending could quickly reverse the technical picture.
A single distributor (Core-Mark) supplies the majority of Murphy USA's merchandise, meaning a supply disruption, contract renegotiation, or distribution failure could materially impair store-level operations.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Murphy USA reduces its dependence on Core-Mark so that no single distributor accounts for more than 60% of merchandise supply within 18 months.
CounterLong-term supply agreements with Core-Mark provide cost predictability and operational consistency, and the relationship may be deeply embedded enough that supply disruption risk is low in practice.
At $586.83, Murphy USA trades 16% above the analyst price target, yielding a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.1 — meaning meaningful downside risk without a corresponding upside catalyst visible in the data.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The stock price falls below $530 (declines more than 9% from current levels), restoring a favorable reward-to-risk profile.
CounterAnalysts may be underestimating Murphy USA's earnings power if fuel margins and merchandise same-store sales outperform, potentially leading to target upgrades that close the gap.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.8 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 86%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $604,796 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 9.4 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 1.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.21
Upside
+1.4%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.21 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.9, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Insider at 3.7, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Roe Peer Leader
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Momentum Breakout Setup
Trip ifStock price falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
- P3Core Mark Supplier Concentration
Trip ifCore-Mark accounts for more than 75% of merchandise supply, or a supply disruption causes same-store sales to decline more than 5%.
- P4Price Above Target Negative Entry
Trip ifStock price rises above $650 (surpasses current levels by more than 10%) without a corresponding analyst target revision higher.