MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MNSO stock price target?

Take-profit $21.71 (+45.9% upside). Target $21.71 (+46.9%), stop $14.20 (−4.1%), A.R:R 7.6:1.

Q: Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about MNSO?

24 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $25.

Recovery setup

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2 hr ago (May 14, 2026, 6:21 AM ET)

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

$14.78+45.9% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 18 Specialty Retail

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield25.41%

IncomeYield4.48%Payout63.81%

Stop $14.20Target $21.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.6:1

Analyst target$24.96+68.9%14 analysts

$21.71our TP

$14.78price

$24.96mean

$46

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6

P/E (Fwd)8.4

Mkt Cap$4.6B

EV/EBITDA6.2

Profit Mgn5.6%

ROE11.5%

Rev Growth32.7%

Beta0.12

Dividend4.48%

Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish

IV113%elevated

Max Pain$30+103.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.215%1.38

Quality5.715%0.85

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum6.210%0.62

Sentiment6.710%0.67

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank6.410%0.64

Technical Setup3.85%0.19

Risk Profile5.55%0.28

Catalyst5.75%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)6.92

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

1.5

Bollinger

4.9

Support Resistance

5.1

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5A.R:R 7.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

54 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.98Resistance $15.80

Price Targets

$14

$22

A.Upside+46.9%

A.R:R7.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-21 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MNSO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $21.71 (+46.9%), stop $14.20 (−4.1%), A.R:R 7.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MNSO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.71 (+45.9% upside). Target $21.71 (+46.9%), stop $14.20 (−4.1%), A.R:R 7.6:1. Stop-loss: $14.20.

What are the risks of investing in MNSO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MNSO overvalued or undervalued?

MINISO Group Holding Limited trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MNSO?

24 analysts cover MNSO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $25.

What does MINISO Group Holding Limited do?MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led...

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in brand licensing activity; and online sale of lifestyle products. MINISO Group Holding Limited was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.