Murphy USA generates an 80% return on equity with strong price momentum in a breakout setup, but single-supplier concentration through Core-Mark and a price already 16% above the analyst target leave the stock in unfavorable asymmetry territory for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Roe Peer Leader→Stable
- Strong Momentum Breakout Setup↓Deteriorating
- Core Mark Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $623.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark.
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores across 27 states under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, with the majority of Murphy-branded locations near Walmart Supercenter stores. The company sold approximately 4.8 billion gallons of motor... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $623.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Murphy USA Inc.
About Murphy USA Inc.
Murphy USA's 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores span 27 states, with 380 locations in Texas and 73% of stores on company-owned land. The company sold approximately 4.8 billion gallons of motor fuel through retail outlets in 2025, generating retail fuel margin of 28.1 cents per gallon; merchandise sales averaged $203.7 thousand per store per month. Total employment stood at roughly 16,900 people across the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands.
Revenue flows from high-volume, low-price fuel sales and convenience merchandise, with merchandise margin reaching 20.2% of merchandise sales in 2025. Nicotine products are among the company's highest-volume merchandise categories — though future legislation, tax increases, and anti-nicotine campaigns may impact demand. More than 78% of merchandise is sourced from Core-Mark International, Inc. under a supply contract renewed and extended through 2031 in November 2025; if Core-Mark were unable to fulfill its obligations, alternative suppliers may not be immediately available on similar commercial terms. Murphy USA does not produce or refine petroleum products, competing with integrated oil companies that can offset retail margin pressure through upstream operations, as well as national convenience chains, supermarkets, and discount club stores. Higher fuel prices inflate credit card fees — assessed as a percentage of transaction amounts rather than gross margin — which may weigh on retail profitability in rising-price environments.
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Murphy USA's approximately 100 stores are leased directly from Walmart under a master lease agreement that permits Walmart to terminate at its option under customary circumstances, including events of insolvency, and prohibits store transfers without Walmart's written consent. ECRs on properties purchased from Walmart grant Walmart a right of first refusal on property sales and bar transfers to any Walmart competitor. The filing notes approximately one quarter of leased sites have more than 10 years of term remaining including renewal options, meaning three-quarters face nearer-term renegotiation exposure.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
From Murphy USA Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-29Recent Developments — Murphy USA Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance Singapore — Yahoo Finance Singapore positive
- NEWS MURPHY USA ($MUSA) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Q1 2025 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Murphy USA (MUSA) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-30T23:28:41Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierCore-Mark10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, over 78% of our merchandise, including most nicotine products and grocery items, was purchased from a single wholesale grocer, Core-Mark.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOWDonald R. Smith, Jr. appointed as SVP, CFO and Treasurer effective April 3, 2026, elevated from Interim CFO role held since October 2025. Previously VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Treasurer. No prior CFO departure cited in this filing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $623.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $579.95. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $622.47 (-13.2% upside). Prior stop was $579.95. Stop-loss: $579.95.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Core-Mark; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).
Murphy USA Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover MUSA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $621.
What does Murphy USA Inc. do?Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores across 27 states under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and...
Murphy USA operates 1,800 retail fuel and convenience stores across 27 states under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, with the majority of Murphy-branded locations near Walmart Supercenter stores. The company sold approximately 4.8 billion gallons of motor fuel in 2025, employing roughly 16,900 people and earning margins from high-volume fuel and convenience merchandise sales.