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National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica; Negative momentum.

National Vision is a U.S. optical retail chain operating 1,100+ stores under America's Best, Eyeglass World, and other brands, offering affordable eye exams and eyewear. Revenue comes from retail optical product sales and eye care services; managed care represented 42% of... Read more

$16.89+81.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.19%
Stop $15.74Target $30.69(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.4:1
Analyst target$35.27+108.8%11 analysts
$30.69our TP
$16.89price
$35.27mean
$42

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.7
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth6.6%
Beta1.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV207%elevated
Max Pain$13-26.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierEssilorLuxottica
    10-K Item 1: 'Under our agreement with EssilorLuxottica, EssilorLuxottica has the sole and exclusive right to supply certain eyeglass lenses to us.'
  • MEDIUMCustomermanaged care42%
    10-K Item 1: 'our managed care business represented 42% of our revenues from continuing operations'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Vol Acceleration
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flatVolume surge (6.2x avg) on selloff

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.75Resistance $26.63

Price Targets

$16
$31
A.Upside+81.7%
A.R:R5.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EYE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $30.69 (+81.7%), stop $15.74 (−7.3%), A.R:R 5.4:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EYE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.69 (+81.4% upside). Target $30.69 (+81.7%), stop $15.74 (−7.3%), A.R:R 5.4:1. Stop-loss: $15.74.

What are the risks of investing in EYE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: EssilorLuxottica; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is EYE overvalued or undervalued?

National Vision Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.7 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about EYE?

16 analysts cover EYE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does National Vision Holdings, Inc. do?National Vision is a U.S. optical retail chain operating 1,100+ stores under America's Best, Eyeglass World, and other...

National Vision is a U.S. optical retail chain operating 1,100+ stores under America's Best, Eyeglass World, and other brands, offering affordable eye exams and eyewear. Revenue comes from retail optical product sales and eye care services; managed care represented 42% of revenues in 2025. EssilorLuxottica holds exclusive rights to supply certain eyeglass lenses.

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