Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. At $51.01, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Academy Sports + Outdoors operates 322 full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation stores across 21 contiguous U.S. states, generating $6.05 billion in net sales for fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. Revenue comes from direct retail transactions across outdoor (31%),... Read more
Sell if holding. At $51.01, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Academy Sports and Outdoors, In
About Academy Sports and Outdoors, In
Academy Sports + Outdoors operated 322 stores in 21 contiguous U.S. states at fiscal year-end January 31, 2026, with Texas home to 117 locations — more than a third of the total footprint — and net sales reaching $6.05 billion for fiscal 2025. Merchandise was organized across four divisions: outdoor (31% of net sales), apparel (27%), sports and recreation (22%), and footwear (20%). E-commerce contributed 11.7% of merchandise sales in fiscal 2025, up from 10.5% in 2024, as the company expanded its buy-online-pickup-in-store and shipping fulfillment capabilities.
Academy earns revenue through direct retail transactions at 321 leased and one company-owned stores, with 15- to 20-year lease terms typical across the portfolio. Approximately 78% of merchandise sales in fiscal 2025 came from national brands — including Nike, Under Armour, adidas, Yeti, and Carhartt — with the remaining 22% generated by 19 proprietary private label brands. No single vendor exceeded 12% of total purchases and no single brand exceeded 12% of total sales across roughly 1,500 vendor relationships. The assortment skews toward an active-family demographic and spans seasonal and year-round categories, with major traffic peaks during summer holidays, back-to-school, and November-December. Labor costs reflect a workforce of 23,000 team members as of January 31, 2026, of whom 55% were part-time — a split that tracks seasonal sales fluctuations.
Show full overview
A material portion of Academy's merchandise — including much of its private label inventory — is sourced from China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Brazil. The 10-K identifies escalating tariff uncertainty as a structural input cost risk: trade policy changes may be implemented with limited advance notice across a broad range of countries and products, and the company may be unable to timely adjust sourcing or pricing to offset those cost increases. Compliance with the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act — enacted in late 2021 and subsequently expanded with new Entity List designations — has added documentation costs and could cause shipment delays or the need to source alternative suppliers in certain categories.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
From Academy Sports and Outdoors, In's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Academy Sports and Outdoors, In
Latest news
- NEWS ASO: Wells Fargo Raises Price Target for Academy Sports | ASO St - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO) Given New $56.00 Price Target at Wells Fargo & Company - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS ASO Stock Update: Barclays Raises Price Target for Academy Sport - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Barclays Issues Positive Forecast for Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO) Stock Price - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo raises Academy Sports stock price target on growth strategy - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicsouthern United States10-K Item 1: 'Regional focus primarily in the southern United States'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-14Item 1.01MEDIUMOn May 14, 2026, Academy, Ltd. issued $500 million of 5.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 via Rule 144A/Reg S. Proceeds used to redeem 2027 senior secured notes and fully repay the $400 million term loan with UBS AG.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-14Item 1.02MEDIUMOn May 14, 2026, Academy voluntarily prepaid and terminated its $400 million senior secured term loan with UBS AG (successor to Credit Suisse AG). All security interests and liens thereunder were released upon repayment.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-14Item 2.03LOWOn May 14, 2026, Academy, Ltd. created a $500 million obligation under 5.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2031, maturing May 15, 2031, with semi-annual interest payments beginning November 15, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $51.01, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $47.44. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.28 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $47.44. Stop-loss: $47.44.
Thin upside margin: 6.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
Academy Sports and Outdoors, In trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover ASO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $60.
What does Academy Sports and Outdoors, In do?Academy Sports + Outdoors operates 322 full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation stores across 21 contiguous U.S....
Academy Sports + Outdoors operates 322 full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation stores across 21 contiguous U.S. states, generating $6.05 billion in net sales for fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. Revenue comes from direct retail transactions across outdoor (31%), apparel (27%), sports & recreation (22%), and footwear (20%) merchandise divisions.