Motorola Solutions is a high-quality business with 99% return on equity and strong analyst consensus implying 23% upside, but near-term entry is challenged by a confirmed price downtrend and a death-cross technical signal that limits the near-term risk-reward.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Motorola Solutions generates a 99% return on equity and 18% operating margins, scoring 7.2/10 on quality and ranking among the top peers by profitability metrics including a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 80% and operating margins stay above 15% in the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0/10, meaning profitability is high but not improving, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7 amplifies the impact of any revenue shortfall on equity returns. | ||
The company faces single-source supplier concentration risk identified in its 10-K filings, which could disrupt production or margins if any key supplier relationship deteriorates. Bear case | The company discloses no supplier-related disruptions in earnings calls or 8-K filings over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSupply chain diversification is common in the communication equipment industry, and the risk may already be priced in through the company's leverage in supplier negotiations given its scale. | ||
The average analyst price target implies 23% upside from the current price of $411.72, with a take-profit target of $440.69, supported by a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak over the past year. Sentiment breakdown | The stock rises above $440 within 12 months, narrowing the gap to analyst consensus as near-term technical headwinds fade. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -11.8%, and the overall average surprise is near zero at 0.18%, suggesting analysts have largely priced in expected performance with limited room for further positive revisions. | ||
Motorola Solutions generates a 99% return on equity and 18% operating margins, scoring 7.2/10 on quality and ranking among the top peers by profitability metrics including a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9.
→Stable- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 80% and operating margins stay above 15% in the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0/10, meaning profitability is high but not improving, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7 amplifies the impact of any revenue shortfall on equity returns.
The company faces single-source supplier concentration risk identified in its 10-K filings, which could disrupt production or margins if any key supplier relationship deteriorates.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company discloses no supplier-related disruptions in earnings calls or 8-K filings over the next 12 months.
CounterSupply chain diversification is common in the communication equipment industry, and the risk may already be priced in through the company's leverage in supplier negotiations given its scale.
The average analyst price target implies 23% upside from the current price of $411.72, with a take-profit target of $440.69, supported by a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak over the past year.
→Stable- Expectation
- The stock rises above $440 within 12 months, narrowing the gap to analyst consensus as near-term technical headwinds fade.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -11.8%, and the overall average surprise is near zero at 0.18%, suggesting analysts have largely priced in expected performance with limited room for further positive revisions.
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The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.2% per 30 days, and a death cross technical signal is in place, indicating the price trend remains negative even as MACD shows early signs of improvement.
→Stable- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months and MACD confirms a bullish crossover.
CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI is near neutral at 51, which could indicate a recovery is beginning, but the falling on-balance volume suggests buying conviction is still weak.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Communication Equipment
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $402.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source vendors.
Motorola Solutions sells mission-critical safety and security technology — LMR/MANET networks, video cameras, and command center software — through two segments: Products and Systems Integration ($7.3 billion, 62% of 2025 net sales) and Software and Services ($4.4 billion, 38%).... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $402.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source vendors. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Motorola Solutions, Inc.
About Motorola Solutions, Inc.
Motorola Solutions generated $11.7 billion in consolidated net sales in 2025 across two segments: Products and Systems Integration ($7.3 billion, 62%) and Software and Services ($4.4 billion, 38%), serving more than 100,000 customers in over 100 countries. The company's three technology lines — Mission Critical Networks, Video Security and Access Control, and Command Center — address public safety, government/defense, and enterprise customers, with R&D expenditures of $970 million in 2025 and approximately 40% of the workforce engaged in R&D and engineering globally.
Products and Systems Integration revenue flows primarily from selling LMR two-way radio devices, MANET systems, video cameras, and integrated communications infrastructure installations, with MCN representing 84% of that segment's net sales in 2025. Software and Services revenue comes from multi-year managed services and technical support contracts, cloud-based video management subscriptions, Command Center software for 911-through-case-closure workflows, and a hardware-as-a-subscription model for body cameras. The Software and Services backlog stood at $11.93 billion at December 31, 2025, reflecting long-duration contracts tied to customers whose systems often have multi-year to multi-decade lifespans. Direct sales target the largest accounts while a channel partner program of independent dealers and distributors extends geographic coverage. Named MCN competitors include Airbus, L3Harris Technologies, and Hytera; Video competitors include Axon Enterprise, Hikvision, and Axis Communications; Command Center competitors include Axon Enterprise, AT&T, Tyler Technologies, and CentralSquare Technologies. Procurement of memory and other components from single-source vendors exposes the company to potential supply interruptions if those vendors become capacity-constrained.
Show full overview
The U.S. government is Motorola Solutions' largest customer, accounting for approximately 8% of consolidated 2025 net sales through contracts with multiple branches and agencies including the armed services, all subject to cancellation at the customer's convenience. Beyond the domestic government, 28% of 2025 revenue originated outside of North America, with 49% of employees also outside North America, exposing the company to currency fluctuations, import/export restrictions, and geopolitical instability. The August 2025 acquisition of Silvus Technologies for $4.4 billion expanded defense-oriented MANET capabilities while introducing new competition from startups and established defense contractors in segments where large contracts may receive only partial initial funding and can be cancelled with limited penalty.
See also: Technology · Communication Equipment
From Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-27Recent Developments — Motorola Solutions, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Are Bullish on Top Technology Stocks: KLA (KLAC), Motorola Solutions (MSI) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS MSI Fairly Valued by DCF at $342 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Motorola Solutions (MSI) Gained from Its Core Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Business - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Motorola Solutions Stock Suddenly Sinks Ahead of Earnings - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS MSI Motorola Solutions Earnings Preview May 7, 2026 - Meyka — Meyka neutral
Generated 2026-06-27T02:52:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerU.S. government8.0%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer is the U.S. government ... representing approximately 8% of our consolidated net sales in 2025.'
- MEDIUMGeographicoutside North America28%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 28% of our revenue was generated outside of North America.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source vendors10-K Item 1: 'We currently procure certain materials and components, inclusive of memory, from single-source vendors.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOWPeter A. Leav appointed to Motorola Solutions Board of Directors effective March 12, 2026, and named to Compensation and Leadership Committee. Board size increased from eight to nine members. Leav is Senior Advisor at TPG Inc. Standard non-employee director compensation applies.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $402.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source vendors. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $383.57. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $440.69 (+9.4% upside). Prior stop was $383.57. Stop-loss: $383.57.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source vendors; Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.0 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover MSI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $507.
What does Motorola Solutions, Inc. do?Motorola Solutions sells mission-critical safety and security technology — LMR/MANET networks, video cameras, and...
Motorola Solutions sells mission-critical safety and security technology — LMR/MANET networks, video cameras, and command center software — through two segments: Products and Systems Integration ($7.3 billion, 62% of 2025 net sales) and Software and Services ($4.4 billion, 38%). Customers include public safety agencies, government/defense, and enterprise clients in over 100 countries, served by both a direct salesforce and a channel partner network of independent dealers and distributors.