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Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp (HPE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a global technology company providing servers, hybrid cloud, AI infrastructure, networking (including Juniper Networks acquired July 2025), and financial services to enterprises and governments worldwide. Revenue comes from hardware sales, software... Read more

$30.64+0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#17 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield6.23%
IncomeYield1.85%(5y avg 2.88%)Payout61.18%
Stop $28.89Target $31.01(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$27.08-11.6%19 analysts
$31.01our TP
$30.64price
$27.08mean
$21
$38

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (61.0%)
Target reached (-21.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$41.0B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn-0.3%
ROE-0.5%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.28bearish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$13-57.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomersingle distributor10%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company had one distributor which represented approximately 10% of the Company's total net revenue in fiscal 2025, primarily within the Server and Networking segments.'
  • HIGHGeographicinternational revenue61%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 61% of our overall net revenue in fiscal 2025 came from sales outside the United States.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW
    At 2026 annual meeting on April 1, 2026, stockholders approved Amendment No. 5 to the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company 2021 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing shares reserved by 22 million. Routine equity plan expansion; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.1
Gross Margin
2.4
Operating Margin
3.1
Current Ratio
4.1
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.1
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.02Resistance $31.64

Price Targets

$29
$31
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.3%), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.07% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-01 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HPE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $30.64: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $28.89. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HPE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.01 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $28.89. Stop-loss: $28.89.

What are the risks of investing in HPE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international revenue (61.0%); Target reached (-21.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is HPE overvalued or undervalued?

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HPE?

26 analysts cover HPE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp do?Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a global technology company providing servers, hybrid cloud, AI infrastructure,...

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a global technology company providing servers, hybrid cloud, AI infrastructure, networking (including Juniper Networks acquired July 2025), and financial services to enterprises and governments worldwide. Revenue comes from hardware sales, software subscriptions, services, and financing; ~61% of net revenue in fiscal 2025 came from outside the United States. One distributor represented approximately 10% of total net revenue in fiscal 2025.

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