Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.14
MSI · Why this verdict
Why Motorola Solutions (MSI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Motorola Solutions generates a 99% return on equity and 18% operating margins, scoring 7.2/10 on quality and ranking among the top peers by profitability metrics including a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 80% and operating margins stay above 15% in the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0/10, meaning profitability is high but not improving, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7 amplifies the impact of any revenue shortfall on equity returns. | ||
The company faces single-source supplier concentration risk identified in its 10-K filings, which could disrupt production or margins if any key supplier relationship deteriorates. Bear case | The company discloses no supplier-related disruptions in earnings calls or 8-K filings over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSupply chain diversification is common in the communication equipment industry, and the risk may already be priced in through the company's leverage in supplier negotiations given its scale. | ||
The average analyst price target implies 23% upside from the current price of $411.72, with a take-profit target of $440.69, supported by a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak over the past year. Sentiment breakdown | The stock rises above $440 within 12 months, narrowing the gap to analyst consensus as near-term technical headwinds fade. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -11.8%, and the overall average surprise is near zero at 0.18%, suggesting analysts have largely priced in expected performance with limited room for further positive revisions. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.2% per 30 days, and a death cross technical signal is in place, indicating the price trend remains negative even as MACD shows early signs of improvement. Warnings | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months and MACD confirms a bullish crossover. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI is near neutral at 51, which could indicate a recovery is beginning, but the falling on-balance volume suggests buying conviction is still weak. | ||
Motorola Solutions generates a 99% return on equity and 18% operating margins, scoring 7.2/10 on quality and ranking among the top peers by profitability metrics including a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 80% and operating margins stay above 15% in the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterEarnings growth scores 0.0/10, meaning profitability is high but not improving, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7 amplifies the impact of any revenue shortfall on equity returns.
The company faces single-source supplier concentration risk identified in its 10-K filings, which could disrupt production or margins if any key supplier relationship deteriorates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company discloses no supplier-related disruptions in earnings calls or 8-K filings over the next 12 months.
CounterSupply chain diversification is common in the communication equipment industry, and the risk may already be priced in through the company's leverage in supplier negotiations given its scale.
The average analyst price target implies 23% upside from the current price of $411.72, with a take-profit target of $440.69, supported by a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak over the past year.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock rises above $440 within 12 months, narrowing the gap to analyst consensus as near-term technical headwinds fade.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -11.8%, and the overall average surprise is near zero at 0.18%, suggesting analysts have largely priced in expected performance with limited room for further positive revisions.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.2% per 30 days, and a death cross technical signal is in place, indicating the price trend remains negative even as MACD shows early signs of improvement.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months and MACD confirms a bullish crossover.
CounterThe MACD is improving and RSI is near neutral at 51, which could indicate a recovery is beginning, but the falling on-balance volume suggests buying conviction is still weak.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Motorola Solutions is a high-quality business with 99% return on equity and strong analyst consensus implying 23% upside, but near-term entry is challenged by a confirmed price downtrend and a death-cross technical signal that limits the near-term risk-reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 8.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 99%
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $230
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 122.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.88
Upside
+9.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.88 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.2, Sentiment at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 2.1, Peer rank at 3.9, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Motorola Solutions generates a 99% return on equity and 18% operating margins, scoring 7.2/10 on quality and ranking among the top peers by profitability metrics including a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P2The average analyst price target implies 23% upside from the current price of $411.72, with a take-profit target of $440.69, supported by a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak over the past year.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target drops below $420, reducing implied upside to less than 5% from current levels.
- P3The stock is below its 200-day moving average, which is declining at -1.2% per 30 days, and a death cross technical signal is in place, indicating the price trend remains negative even as MACD shows early signs of improvement.
Trip ifStock price drops below $394, the current stop-loss level, on a closing basis.
- P4The company faces single-source supplier concentration risk identified in its 10-K filings, which could disrupt production or margins if any key supplier relationship deteriorates.
Trip ifManagement discloses a supplier disruption that reduces guidance by more than 5% in any quarter.