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Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1055.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Lumentum is an optical and photonic products company serving cloud data centers, AI/ML infrastructure, telecom, consumer, and industrial markets through its Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech segments. Revenue comes from optical chips, components, and modules sold to cloud... Read more

$1055.19-0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.13%
Stop $982.68Target $1051.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$1081.10+2.5%24 analysts
$1051.86our TP
$1055.19price
$1081.10mean
$600
$1400

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1055.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 93d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-3.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)158.8
P/E (Fwd)50.2
Mkt Cap$70.3B
EV/EBITDA127.6
Profit Mgn17.7%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth90.1%
Beta1.53
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV112%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'some of our suppliers are our sole sources for certain materials, equipment and components'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.3
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 50.2xPEG: 0.23

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.6
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.7
Extreme gap up (5.1%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 93d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $780.48Resistance $1073.33

Price Targets

$983
$1052
A.Upside-0.3%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (93d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LITE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1055.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $1051.86 (-0.3%), stop $982.68 (−7.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LITE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1051.86 (-0.5% upside). Target $1051.86 (-0.3%), stop $982.68 (−7.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $982.68.

What are the risks of investing in LITE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-3.5% away).

Is LITE overvalued or undervalued?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 158.8 (forward 50.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about LITE?

30 analysts cover LITE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $1081.

What does Lumentum Holdings Inc. do?Lumentum is an optical and photonic products company serving cloud data centers, AI/ML infrastructure, telecom,...

Lumentum is an optical and photonic products company serving cloud data centers, AI/ML infrastructure, telecom, consumer, and industrial markets through its Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech segments. Revenue comes from optical chips, components, and modules sold to cloud operators, network equipment manufacturers, and industrial OEMs with ~10,562 employees. It acquired Cloud Light Technology in November 2023 to strengthen AI/ML data center positioning.

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