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Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $392.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components.

Motorola Solutions provides mission-critical safety and security technologies (MCN, Video, Command Center) for public safety, government, and enterprise in 100+ countries. Products & Systems Integration generated $7.3B (62% of 2025 net sales); Software and Services the... Read more

$392.17+12.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.85%
IncomeYield1.26%(5y avg 1.12%)Payout37.10%sustainable
Stop $369.81Target $440.69(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$506.55+29.2%11 analysts
$440.69our TP
$392.17price
$506.55mean
$530

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $392.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.97)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.0
P/E (Fwd)20.8
Mkt Cap$63.7B
EV/EBITDA20.7
Profit Mgn17.6%
ROE99.3%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta0.94
Dividend1.26%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America revenue concentration72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 28% of our revenue was generated outside of North America.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source critical components
    10-K Item 1A: 'certain supplies, including for some of our critical components, software and services solutions, are available only from a single source or limited sources'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Peter A. Leav joined the Board as a director and Compensation Committee member effective March 12, 2026. Board expanded from 8 to 9 members. Standard non-employee director compensation. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.3

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
9.3
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $381.25Resistance $450.00

Price Targets

$370
$441
A.Upside+12.4%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $392.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $440.69 (+12.4%), stop $369.81 (−6.0%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the MSI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $440.69 (+12.4% upside). Target $440.69 (+12.4%), stop $369.81 (−6.0%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $369.81.

What are the risks of investing in MSI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5.

Is MSI overvalued or undervalued?

Motorola Solutions, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.0 (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MSI?

19 analysts cover MSI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $507.

What does Motorola Solutions, Inc. do?Motorola Solutions provides mission-critical safety and security technologies (MCN, Video, Command Center) for public...

Motorola Solutions provides mission-critical safety and security technologies (MCN, Video, Command Center) for public safety, government, and enterprise in 100+ countries. Products & Systems Integration generated $7.3B (62% of 2025 net sales); Software and Services the remainder. It holds a global leadership position in P25, TETRA and DMR two-way radio.

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